Another Round of Retail Price Increase for Refined Oil Products

February 3rd, according to news,

The latest round of adjustments to China's refined oil prices took effect at 24:00 on February 3rd. The retail price of refined oil will be increased again. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil has seen two increases, zero decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen, and the crude oil change rate has remained positive, leading to a "second consecutive increase" in the retail price of refined oil.

Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have shown an upward trend. As of the 2nd, the settlement price for the March WTI crude oil futures contract stood at $62.14 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract reached $66.30 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices initially rose and then fell. On the one hand, multiple positive factors—such as the impact of winter storms in the U.S. on supply and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—combined to drive a significant short-term supply disruption, coupled with a rebound in geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a surge in bullish market sentiment and a sharp increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the U.S. has adopted a somewhat more conciliatory stance toward Iran, and expectations of increased Venezuelan exports, albeit at a slow pace, have also weighed on prices, contributing to the downward trend in crude oil prices. Overall, crude oil prices have risen during this cycle. As of the 3rd, the change rate for crude oil varieties on the 10th working day reached 4.10%, corresponding to an increase of RMB 205 per ton for gasoline and RMB 195 per ton for diesel in China. Converted into per-liter terms, this translates to an increase of RMB 0.17 per liter for 89# gasoline, RMB 0.16 per liter for 92# gasoline, RMB 0.17 per liter for 95# gasoline, and RMB 0.17 per liter for 0# diesel.

Gasoline: Shandong independent refineries are operating relatively stably, with an average operating rate of around 53%. Recently, the operating rates at major national refineries have increased, leading to a rise in inventory levels for some units. Resident travel and other activities are mainly normal, but as temperatures drop and snowy and rainy weather expands, the usage frequency of private cars has increased, ensuring a certain level of demand for gasoline in China. However, the continuously rising popularity of new energy vehicles has led to weaker-than-expected demand, resulting in a volatile gasoline market.

Regarding diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has seen a slight increase, while demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. In recent times, colder temperatures and increased rain and snow in northern regions have disrupted diesel use in infrastructure projects and logistics transportation. Additionally, with agricultural diesel consumption coming to an end, diesel demand has weakened compared to earlier periods. As a result, the diesel market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations.

Looking ahead: In the short term, international oil prices will maintain a fluctuating trend amid the supply-demand tug-of-war and geopolitical volatility. Any recurrence in the geopolitical situation could trigger a short-term spike in oil prices. However, the weak demand, high inventory levels, and the long-term trend of new energy substitution will continue to suppress oil prices, making it difficult for them to form a sustained upward trend, and the overall fluctuation may further increase. In China, the short-term refinery operating rates have improved, leading to an increase in refined oil supply. Additionally, the expansion of the impact area of rainy and snowy weather is expected to suppress the demand for diesel, maintaining a weak diesel market. On the other hand, gasoline demand remains supported, showing stronger resistance to price declines.