BDO Market Conditions Remain Weak, Pending Further Observations

February 6th, according to news from China,

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 2 to 6, the BDO price in China remained at 7,357 CNY/ton, with the price remaining stable on a month-on-month basis and falling by 12.41% year-on-year. The supply of goods continued to increase, while downstream demand weakened, exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction, which negatively impacted the trading sentiment of market participants. However, with prices already at low levels, there is limited room for further discounts, and suppliers continue to stabilize the market. The weak situation in the Chinese BDO market persists.

Supply side: In terms of facilities, starting from April 1, 2026, the country will cancel the VAT export rebate for BDO, leading some export traders to stock up in advance. However, this has limited impact on boosting the domestic BDO market. The effect on BDO supply is mixed.

Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Facilities:

Cost Perspective: Regarding raw material calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market has shown a trend of initial price increases followed by stabilization. On the supply side, the impact of orderly power consumption in Inner Mongolia has gradually eased, and production in major producing regions remains stable, leading to a slight recovery in calcium carbide supply. Market purchasing sentiment is positive, enterprises are experiencing smooth shipments, and some companies are facing tight supply conditions. As for the raw material methanol, the methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of 3:00 p.m. on February 6, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, was around 2,200 CNY per ton. With the calcium carbide market trending upward and the methanol market fluctuating and consolidating, the cost impact on BDO is mixed—both positive and negative.

Demand Side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some major downstream PBT factories in China are shutting down for maintenance, and some small factories in the polyurethane sector are also taking early leave for the holiday. Overall, the demand volume is decreasing, widening the supply-demand gap in the industry, which negatively impacts market sentiment. The BDO demand side is affected by these negative factors.

Market Forecast: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some downstream factories are shutting down for vacation, while plant operations remain stable. This has intensified supply-demand pressures within the market, leading to a generally bearish sentiment among industry players. BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to mainly remain in a wait-and-see consolidation phase.