July 7th news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from July 1st to July 7th, the BDO price in China remained at 7,716 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.54% month-over-month and 11.67% year-over-year. Both supply and demand showed an increasing trend, with cautious sentiment among industry players, and only essential contract orders were traded, while spot negotiations were quiet. The negotiation between supply and demand continued, and the BDO market in China fluctuated narrowly.
Supply side, in terms of facilities, the first phase of Wuheng Chemical, Xinjiang Xinye, and Xinjiang Meike facilities have gradually restarted, leading to an increase in the supply of goods. The BDO supply side is influenced by bearish factors.
Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Plants:
| Region | Plant Dynamics |
|---|---|
| Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua | The 100,000-ton-per-year plant was shut down on June 9; the restart date is yet to be determined. |
| Xinjiang Meike | The Phase III plant has been shut down; Phases I and IV are operating steadily. Phases II and V underwent maintenance from June 15 until the end of June and have now resumed operations. |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | The 300,000-ton-per-year BDO plant is operating at 60% capacity. |
| Shaanxi Heimao | The plant temporarily halted operations on the evening of June 29 and will resume on July 3; a catalyst replacement plan is scheduled for August. |
| Xinjiang Xinye | The 60,000+70,000-ton plant underwent maintenance on June 9. The 70,000-ton unit had undergone maintenance starting May 9 and is now undergoing major overhauls; it is gradually resuming operations, with products expected to start rolling out in early July. |
| Inner Mongolia Dongjing Bio | Phase I is currently undergoing shutdown; Phase II began maintenance on June 10 and will last for 50 days. |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Phase I is operating steadily; Phase II is running at 60-70% capacity, with maintenance scheduled for an undetermined date. |
Cost Perspective: Regarding calcium carbide, the tightening of power supply has intensified the contraction in supply; the concentration of downstream maintenance has eased somewhat, leading to a partial recovery in market demand. The market is clearly experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in rapid increases in calcium carbide prices and rapid depletion of inventories. As for methanol, prices have plunged significantly. With the upward trend in calcium carbide prices and the sharp drop in methanol prices, the impact on BDO costs is mixed—both positive and negative.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, terminal demand has been lackluster, putting downward pressure on supply and demand across multiple downstream industries. Sellers are driven by a desire to secure actual orders and are therefore willing to offer discounts in negotiations, dragging most downstream markets downward. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for downstream players to accept high raw material prices. Consequently, contract orders continue to be fulfilled, while spot market negotiations remain sluggish. The demand side for BDO is weighed down by predominantly bearish factors.
Market Forecast: Raw material calcium carbide remains relatively strong, while methanol fluctuates at low levels; BDO cost pressures persist. Meanwhile, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, and PU resin are increasing their operating rates, leading to higher demand. Overall, BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to experience only narrow-range adjustments.
