Costs Decline, PC Prices Remain High and Fluctuate in Early April

April 15 news

Price Trend

According to SpotCom data, in the first half of April, the Chinese PC market experienced high volatility, with spot prices for some grades generally falling. As of April 15, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 16,533.33 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.10% from the beginning of the month.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: Since April, Chinese PC polymer producers have alternated between resuming operations and undergoing maintenance. Earlier in the period, Zhejiang Petrochemical saw an increase in its operating rate, while Luxi Petrochemical temporarily halted a single production line. Over the interval, the overall load fluctuated before rebounding, with the average operating rate returning to around 87%. Current weekly output stands at 70,000 tons. Although the load remains relatively high, given that further maintenance plans—including those for Koenig & Co. and Zhangzhou Chimei—are still pending, there is still room for supply contraction in the future. Overall, the supply side provides only moderate support for PC prices.

Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese bisphenol A market gradually declined in the first half of April. Affected by the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, phenol and acetone markets remained stagnant and consolidated, thereby dragging down the price center of bisphenol A in China. Meanwhile, supply of bisphenol A remains relatively stable, while demand has softened. As a result, traders are actively selling off their inventories and tend to lower prices to secure orders. Overall, this has weakened the support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.

Demand Side: The profitability of end-user companies has shown only limited improvement, and downstream PC factories continue to operate at generally moderate capacity utilization levels. Currently, PC prices have reached a three-year high, prompting cautious inventory management by buyers and dampening their willingness to build up stock. Market sentiment is heavily characterized by wait-and-see attitudes, leading to reduced liquidity in the supply chain. The earlier speculative surge in PC prices has largely subsided, partly due to fluctuations in crude oil prices. As a result, market participants’ sentiment has turned more subdued, and sellers are now adjusting their quotes according to prevailing market conditions. Overall, demand-side factors are providing weak support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of April, the Chinese PC market experienced high volatility. The price of upstream bisphenol A gradually declined, dragging down the cost value for PC. The load of Chinese PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and overall, the load was high, with limited expectations of supply tightening. Trading in the market was mainly driven by weak rigid demand, with buyers being cautious, purchasing as needed, and transactions mainly consisting of small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be suppressed by a significant downturn in the far upstream, and there might still be room for downward adjustment.

Technical Analysis

Analysts believe that according to the SpotCommodity display, the current 10-day moving average of PC is showing a trend of touching the 20-day moving average downward. The auxiliary indicators show that the 5-tier price of PC is at a recent low and a distant medium-high position, and it is in an overbought warning position for the year. It is judged that a short-term downward trend in the spot price may form, and it is recommended to closely monitor the international crude oil and Middle East maritime shipping conditions in the future market.