October 1st News
Price Trend
According to SpotCom data, the recent domestic PC market has seen a post-increase correction, with spot prices for various grades largely returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. As of September 30, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 14,716.67 CNY/ton, representing a 0.11% increase from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: Since September, operating rates at Chinese PC polymer producers have remained broadly steady. The industry’s overall capacity utilization has fluctuated around 75%. Production shortfalls have been relatively stable, with weekly output currently hovering just above 60,000 tons, and shipments from polymer plants remaining reasonably smooth. In the latter half of the month, Rongsheng Petrochemical completed a blowdown operation on one production line, while Wanhua Chemical restarted certain units toward month-end, leading to a modest resumption of capacity. Meanwhile, Luxi Chemical slightly reduced its operating load, as the sector alternated between start-ups and maintenance shutdowns, resulting in only limited overall supply impacts. Overall, supply-side support for the PC market remains moderate.
Raw Material Side: As shown in the chart above, since early September, China’s bisphenol A market has moved sharply higher before settling into a sideways trading range. However, after an initial surge, crude oil prices—key upstream costs—subsequently retraced. Meanwhile, steps such as the Iranian president’s visit to the U.S. to attend a meeting have signaled a substantive diplomatic thaw in the ongoing U.S.–Iran standoff, shifting market sentiment from “supply‑disruption fears” to “de‑escalation and resumption of supplies.” Phenol prices have followed suit, declining in tandem. That said, on‑spot supply of premium‑grade BPA remains relatively tight, with factories and traders holding healthy inventories, providing support to spot prices. Consequently, BPA spot prices are likely to remain rangebound for now. Overall, cost‑support for polycarbonate remains reasonably firm.
Demand Side: As we enter September, downstream PC manufacturers have yet to show any clear signs of a seasonal uptick, with end‑user capacity utilization remaining at low levels and demand for products such as sheet‑metal enclosures staying subdued. Although mid‑month price increases were underpinned by a tight supply‑demand balance, buyers remain reluctant to pay higher prices. Coupled with lackluster pre‑holiday stocking and the recent completion of inventory replenishment, trading activity has turned sluggish, market sentiment is heavily cautious, and buyers are adopting a wait‑and‑see approach. Overall, demand is providing little support to the spot price of polycarbonate.
Future Market Prediction
In September, the Chinese PC market experienced a rise followed by a pullback. Upstream bisphenol A prices reached a high and then plateaued, but the support from distant cost values for PC significantly decreased, and there is a possibility of a bearish outlook in the future. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymer plants are moderate, with limited changes expected in supply. Trading within the market is mainly driven by weak rigid demand, and pre-holiday stockpiling activities are scarce. Currently, the supply and demand for PC is in a relatively balanced state. Analysts believe that in the short term, PC may trend weaker.
