Polyethylene Prices Surge Across the Board, with High-Pressure Leading the Rise

March 6th, News

From March 2 to 5, 2026, the Chinese polyethylene market experienced a sharp, across-the-board price surge, led by four key factors: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a dramatic spike in crude oil prices, plant maintenance activities, and the resumption of downstream operations.

According to the commodity market analysis system, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on March 2 was 6,816 CNY/ton, and the average price on March 6 was 7,566 CNY/ton, an increase of 11%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on March 2 was 8,916 CNY/ton, and the average price on March 6 was 10,366 CNY/ton, an increase of 16.26%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 2 was 7,370 CNY/ton, and the average price on March 6 was 8,295 CNY/ton, an increase of 12.55%.

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Cost side: Geopolitical conflict triggers crude oil prices.

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Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly stringent, sending crude oil prices soaring. Strong support from the cost side is driving a passive upward trend across the entire PE market.

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Supply side: Import disruption + plant maintenance

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China’s polyethylene imports are highly dependent on the Middle East: Middle Eastern sources account for nearly 50% of China’s total PE imports. Among these, Iran is the largest import source of LDPE, accounting for about 14%. Overall, China’s dependence on LDPE imports is close to 50%, making it the segment most severely affected. Shipping disruptions have led to the tightest supply situation, with suppliers holding back goods and significantly increasing prices. Additionally, new maintenance shutdowns at Chinese plants such as Qilu and Dushanzi—scheduled from February 27 to March 5—will result in a loss of approximately 61,500 tons of PE production capacity, an increase of 3,500 tons compared to the previous period, further tightening supply.

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Demand side: Resumption of work after the holiday + Expectations for the peak season

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After the eighth day of the first lunar month, downstream industries have gradually resumed work, and production in packaging films, injection molding, and wire drawing has begun to pick up. March is traditionally the peak season for agricultural films, and demand for stockpiling has been released ahead of schedule, leading to an increase in inquiries and restocking activities.

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Funds and Sentiment: Futures Lead the Way, Spot Prices Follow Suit

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Futures consecutive limit-up sessions have driven up spot quotations, leading to traders holding back on sales and downstream panic buying. The market has shifted from being fundamentally driven to being influenced by geopolitical factors and sentiment, resulting in increased volatility.

Short-term outlook: Bullish factors: high crude oil prices, tight LDPE imports, plant maintenance activities, resumption of downstream operations, and expectations of a peak season. Bearish factors: high inventory levels in China, downward pressure on downstream profits, and risks of an easing in geopolitical conflicts. Forecast: In the short term, prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, with increased price swings. If geopolitical tensions ease, prices could surge briefly before falling back, returning to supply-and-demand fundamentals.