Under the Game of Multiple Factors, the PTA Market Enters a Phased Correction

March 26th, News

Under the complex interplay of weakening costs, shrinking supply, and weak demand, the PTA market has entered a phase of temporary correction since mid-March. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of March 26, the spot price of PTA in the East China region stood at 6,740 CNY per ton, down 2.77% from March 17.

On March 23, New York time, international crude oil futures collapsed across the board. At the close, NYMEX May crude oil futures plunged by $10.10, a price decrease of 10.28%, settling at $88.13 per barrel; ICE May Brent crude oil plummeted by $12.25, with a price decrease of 10.9%, closing at $99.94 per barrel and falling below the $100 mark; June Brent crude oil also dropped by 9.9% simultaneously, ending at $95.92 per barrel. Stimulated by news from the U.S., oil prices briefly plunged nearly 15% during trading hours. Subsequently, after Iranian officials denied any dialogue with the U.S., the price decline narrowed slightly. The battle between bulls and bears reached an extreme level on the market, and PTA cost support weakened.

From the perspective of supply and demand, in 2026, the PTA industry in China is in a capacity vacuum period, with no new capacity being added. Coupled with the compression of processing fees, PTA producers are actively reducing loads and undergoing maintenance. Among them, Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 million tons PTA facility plans to reduce its load by 30% starting from April 1st. Due to severe cost fluctuations, after the spot processing margin for PTA was significantly compressed, there has been an increase in production cuts and shutdowns in Chinese facilities. Currently, the industry's operating rate is only 77%, and the contraction in the supply side is supporting price increases.

On the demand side, after PTA prices surged to high levels, downstream polyester and weaving enterprises saw a sharp drop in their willingness to purchase raw materials at these elevated prices, leading to sluggish production and sales and insufficient support from high-priced demand. Additionally, factors such as a shortage of overseas orders and rising inventories of finished polyester products further dampened the recovery momentum of terminal demand, serving as a key driver behind the PTA market’s pullback.

Analysts believe that with PTA maintenance plans exceeding 8,000,000 tons in the second quarter, the logic of supply contraction remains unchanged, and PTA processing fees are still at a low level, limiting the downward space. However, constraining factors still exist. The trends in crude oil and PX prices, as well as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, directly determine the direction of costs. At the same time, the recovery strength of terminal demand is questionable. The shortage of overseas orders and high inventory levels in enterprises may continue to affect purchasing sentiment, and short-term fluctuations in the financial market may also exacerbate market volatility.