July 24th News
Price Trend
According to Spotcom data, in the second half of July, the Chinese PC market showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices for various grades increasing significantly. As of July 24, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 13,983.33 CNY/ton, representing a 7.84% increase from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: In the second half of July, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises increased from a high level. The restart of Pingmei Shenma and Luxi Petrochemical, which restarted one production line, has pushed China's operating load to the highest point of the year. Currently, both Zhangzhou Chi Mei and Sichuan Tianhua are about to resume operations, and the overall industry operating rate is likely to exceed 80%. The loss in production is gradually decreasing, with the weekly average output returning to above 65,000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from polymerization plants is moderate. Overall, the supply side provides poor support for PC.
In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the chart above, since entering July, the Chinese bisphenol A market has continued to rise significantly from a low base. International crude oil prices have risen due to repeated fluctuations in the situation in the Middle East, leading to noticeable increases in acetone and phenol prices. At the same time, the supply of legitimate goods in the market has gradually tightened, and expectations for bisphenol A are positive. Holders mainly support price increases, and low-priced supplies downstream have decreased, with the focus of actual transactions shifting upward. However, the actual demand changes are limited, and overall, there is strong support for PC cost values.
Demand Side: Sales at downstream PC factories remain at the usual off-season level, with demand for sheet materials and enclosures softening. End-user companies are operating at low utilization rates. Currently, PC prices have basically reached their lowest point of the year, and market sentiment is heavily characterized by wait-and-see attitudes. Buyers are cautious about stocking up and show little willingness to build inventories. Although traders are attempting to quote higher prices, end-users remain wary, leading to slower liquidity in the supply chain. Despite the upward shift in pricing focus by polymer producers, the existing supply in the market still needs to be absorbed. Overall, demand-side factors provide weak support for PC spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
In the latter half of July, the Chinese PC market saw a surge in prices. The price of upstream bisphenol A continued to rise, significantly increasing the cost support for PC. Chinese PC polymer plants were operating at high capacity, with expectations of further increases, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future. Market transactions were mainly driven by weak but necessary demand, with cautious inventory building and more frequent small-scale orders. Currently, with increased supply and weak demand, there is significant resistance to further market growth, and it is expected that prices may consolidate at high levels in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Analysts believe that according to SpotCom, on July 16th, the 10-day moving average of PC crossed above the 20-day moving average, and the difference between the averages is showing a trend of positive expansion. The auxiliary indicators show that the PC price at all five levels is currently at a high point in recent days and at a medium-low point in the distant days. It is judged that in the short term, the market is in a positive trend. For future market trends, it is recommended to closely monitor the fundamental situation of PC in China.
