July 20th News
According to monitoring data: After a period of weak consolidation, the adipic acid market in China has seen an increase since July. On July 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 7,816 CNY/ton, and on July 20th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7,933 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.49%.
The main factors influencing the rise and fall of adipic acid prices during this stage.
Supply side: The industry's average operating rate is below 60%; multiple main facilities of China's Pingmei Shenma Nylon Chemical, Shandong Haili, and others are undergoing concentrated maintenance and reduced load operations in July, leading to a contraction in the availability of spot goods, and a slow reduction in social inventory. Factories have no intention of releasing large volumes of goods due to losses, resulting in limited spot circulation and scarce low-priced goods, which restricts the downward price movement.
On the demand side: The entire industry is experiencing its traditional off-season, with purchases driven purely by immediate needs and no bulk restocking (the core bearish logic). Downstream markets for adipic acid have fully entered the traditional July-August off-season, which is the biggest headwind in this round of market conditions. Polyurethane PU synthetic leather slurry and shoe sole raw material plants are generally operating at less than 50% capacity. At the end-user level, orders for footwear, apparel, and synthetic leather are scarce, and downstream companies continue to deplete their raw material inventories, only maintaining daily just-in-time procurement. There is very little willingness to chase price increases, making it extremely difficult to secure high-priced orders.
Technical-level prediction
According to the price trend chart of adipic acid in the commodity market analysis system, a key indicator shows that after the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average on July 2, it has already crossed above by July 18. In late July, the positive difference in the average of adipic acid has narrowed, indicating that the rate of increase in the price of adipic acid is slowing down, and the probability of a decline in the future increases.
Auxiliary indicators: In late July, the price of adipic acid was at a 10-day high and in the middle to high range for both 20-day and 30-day periods. This also somewhat confirms that the adipic acid market in China was at a high level in late July, and it is expected to see a downward trend at the end of the month.
To sum up: According to supply-and-demand forecasts, supply pressure has eased somewhat, while demand remains weak. By the end of July, adipic acid prices have shown a clear downward trend. From a technical perspective, we can see that at the end of July, there is insufficient upward momentum in the adipic acid market. Therefore, overall, the adipic acid market at the end of July will likely experience mainly oscillating and declining trends, with prices expected to range between 7,500 CNY/ton and 8,000 CNY/ton.
