High-level Plateau Interval Stabilization: Review and Future Trend Prediction of the Melamine Market in China in April

April 7th, according to news from China,

I. Core Market Overview

According to the data: As of April 7, 2026, the benchmark price of melamine in China is 9,650.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.39% from early April (9,425.00 CNY/ton). The price has maintained a high and stable range this week, with quotes remaining unchanged for several consecutive days. The market has entered a stage of high-level bargaining after the momentum for increases has weakened.

From the perspective of price performance within the year, the current price has reached a nearly one-year historical high, with a price increase of over 79.9% compared to the lowest point of 5375 CNY/ton within the year. The median value is 7512.5 CNY/ton, and the current price is more than 28.4% higher than the median value, placing it in an absolutely high price range. The market's "one-year over-increase" warning remains in effect.

II. Breakdown of Market Trends in the Xianhuotong System

(1) Position Feature Analysis (5-Point Position Method)

According to the Spot Connect rules, prices are scored on a 5-tier scale: high position 1 point, upper-middle position 2 points, middle position 3 points, lower-middle position 4 points, and low position 5 points.

10 days / 20 days / 30 days / 60 days / 90 days / 1 year — Position: All at high levels

Sum of cycle positions over 10/20/30-day periods: 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 points, significantly below the buy threshold (>9 points). Core conclusion: The current price is at an absolute high across the entire cycle, presenting no buying opportunities whatsoever. The risk of chasing higher prices at this level is extremely high.

(2) Trend Feature Analysis (Moving Average Method)

SpotCommodity moving average rule: When the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, it indicates an upward trend; when they are intertwined, it indicates a consolidation trend; when the short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, it indicates a downward trend.

Price line (yellow): Continuously running above the 10-day (red), 20-day (cyan), 30-day (green), and 60-day (purple) moving averages, the bullish formation remains intact.

Moving average slope: The short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day) have flattened, the price is converging toward the moving averages, and the upward momentum in a single direction has significantly weakened.

Core conclusion: The trend is still bullish, but it has entered the late stage of the rise, with prominent features of high-level volatility and insufficient sustainability of the increase.

(3) System Buy Opportunity Determination

According to Xianhuotong’s buy double-condition:

1. The sum of the 10/20/30-day position scores is greater than 9 points: Currently, it’s only 3 points, so it doesn’t meet the requirement.

2. The moving average shows entanglement or an upward trend: Currently, it is in an upward trend, meeting the criteria.

Final judgment: There is no buying opportunity; the current position is only suitable for holding and waiting for appreciation. Chasing highs is strictly prohibited, and caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback from high levels.

III. Core Drivers of the Market

1. Supply side: The current operating rate of the melamine industry in China is maintained at a high level of 68%-70%. However, companies have sufficient pending orders (covering April and May), leading to tight spot supply. Companies are strongly willing to maintain high prices, which is the core support for keeping prices at a high level.

2. Demand side: The operating rates of downstream industries such as panels and coatings in China are less than 50%, showing strong resistance to the current high price of 9,650 CNY/ton. Purchasing is mainly driven by essential needs, and new orders are slowing down. The difficulty in sustaining high prices is the core pressure preventing further price increases.

3. Cost Side: The price of raw material urea remains volatile at a high level, but its upward momentum is insufficient, weakening the marginal cost support for melamine and failing to provide additional impetus for further price increases. As of April 7, the benchmark price of urea stood at 1,857.50 CNY per ton, down 0.4% from the beginning of this month (1,865.00 CNY per ton).

4. Export end: Export orders still provide some support, but the international market's acceptance of high prices has decreased, leading to a month-on-month decline in export volume, and a weakening effect on Chinese prices.

IV. Forecast of Future Market Trends (Conclusion from the Xianhuotong System)

Short term (1-2 weeks, mid-to-late April): Price range: 9,500–9,800 CNY/ton. Enterprises’ pending orders provide support for prices, while robust downstream demand acts as a floor, making it difficult for prices to fall sharply. However, downstream buyers are reluctant to accept high prices, leading to slower transaction volumes and preventing prices from continuing their sharp rise. As a result, the market has entered a phase of sideways trading at high levels. Throughout the entire cycle, high prices combined with a weakening bullish trend mean that the market will mainly experience fluctuations, offering no clear opportunities for chasing upward price movements.

Mid-term (3-4 weeks, early May): Enterprises are gradually digesting their pending orders, while new orders remain insufficient. Downstream industries continue to cut production and resist high prices, leading to a further contraction in procurement demand. As a result, the price of raw material urea has weakened, cost support has lost its effectiveness, and prices have fallen below the 10-day moving average. The bullish arrangement structure has been broken. If these signals are triggered, prices will likely fall to the range of 9,200–9,500 CNY per ton, confirming a downward trend from the previous high levels.

Long-term (1-2 months): Current prices have reached an absolute high for the past year, significantly exceeding both the industry’s average cost and the reasonable profit level. As supply recovers and demand remains weak, prices will gradually revert toward the median value (around 7,500 CNY/ton). A long-term, oscillating downward trend is the overarching pattern.

In summary, although the melamine market trend remains upward, price levels have already entered an extremely high-risk zone and no longer meet the buy-entry criteria defined by the “spot market analysis methodology.” All indicators and alerts provided by the system suggest that we are currently in a phase of risk accumulation rather than a buying opportunity. It is recommended to prioritize risk management and closely monitor whether the price shows signs of a top reversal.