August 18 news
August 18, 2026—Conclusion on the Trend Direction for Caustic Soda: Range-bound. Reason: According to the moving average difference method, the 5-day and 20-day moving averages remained unchanged from the previous day, while the 10-day moving average rose compared to the previous day. Since the directions of change among these three moving averages are not fully consistent, we conclude that the trend is range-bound. Meanwhile, combining supply-and-demand data, the capacity utilization rate of sampled caustic soda enterprises has slightly declined, and factory inventories have risen month-on-month. However, trading sentiment in some regions has improved somewhat. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, this further supports the conclusion of a range-bound market. The following is a detailed analysis:
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
2. Signal Status Determination
Fluctuation (the directions of change in the three mean differences are not entirely consistent; there are both zero-value and positive changes, failing to meet the requirement of a clear, unified trend direction).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility. Reason: According to the moving average difference method, the 5-day and 20-day moving average differences remained unchanged from the previous day, while the 10-day moving average difference rose compared to the previous day. The directions of change among these three moving averages are not fully consistent, failing to meet the criteria for a clear trend. Meanwhile, combining supply-and-demand data, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, and inventory levels at fixed liquid alkali enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more increased by 5.24% month-on-month. However, trading sentiment in certain regions such as Inner Mongolia and Anhui has shown some improvement. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, this further supports the judgment of continued volatile market conditions.
4. Position Space Reference
The price is in the first tier (low level) on the 1-year cycle, with limited downside potential; it’s in the second tier (mid-to-low level) on the 3-month cycle, and in the first tier (low level) on the 60-day cycle. Overall, the price remains within a relatively low range, offering some support at the lower end.
5. Trend chart display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
