This week, the market price of propylene oxide in China first increased and then stabilized

April 10th News

This week, the market price of propylene oxide in China first increased and then stabilized. According to the monitoring system, as of April 10th, the benchmark price of propylene oxide was 13,300 CNY per ton, an increase of 8.13% compared to the 1st.

On the raw materials front: Recently, the cost side has seen propylene prices surge and then fall back, while the liquid chlorine market has remained weak but stable. As geopolitical tensions show signs of easing and energy futures plunge sharply, propylene prices have shifted from rising to falling. According to monitoring systems, as of April 10, the benchmark price for propylene stood at 9,324.33 CNY per ton, up 6.15% compared to the beginning of this month (8,784.33 CNY per ton).

Supply side: In April, there are intensive maintenance plans for propylene oxide plants in China, with many major companies operating at reduced capacity or shutting down, leading to a significant decline in the industry's operating rate. Some companies continue to halt sales. The PO unit of Wanhua Chemical is operating at a reduced scale, while Shida Shenghua remains shut down. Although Jinling and Sanyue have resumed operations after a short period of reduced output, the overall operating rate remains low.

On the demand side: As the price of propylene oxide rises rapidly, downstream enterprises have become noticeably resistant to the high raw-material costs. Negotiations within the market have reached an impasse, and new orders are limited, with most purchases being small, essential-need-based transactions. Consequently, some traders are facing increasing pressure to offload their inventories. Overall, support from the downstream demand side has weakened somewhat, and the market is characterized by a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Propylene oxide continues to remain firm at elevated levels.

Spot Market Trend Forecast:

According to the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that on April 7th, the price of propylene oxide began to rise above the 10-day moving average, showing an upward trend. On April 10th, the price was above the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, indicating that the price of propylene oxide was firmly at a high level.

From the 5-tier position of propylene oxide, it can be seen that on April 8, the price of propylene oxide was at a high level within the cycle (10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, one-year position), and it was in an overbought state within a year. The high position in all five tiers indicates that the price of propylene oxide is in an upward trend, but the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to be cautious.

Comprehensive Forecast: According to propylene oxide analysts, propylene prices on the raw material side have surged and then retreated, while the liquid chlorine market remains weak but stable. Coupled with low facility utilization rates and some companies suspending sales, this has further tightened spot supply, and costs continue to stay stubbornly high. However, downstream demand lacks sufficient acceptance of the high-priced raw materials, and there is little willingness to chase higher prices, resulting in limited new orders. It is expected that the Chinese propylene oxide market will remain stable with a slight upward bias in the near term. Further attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and the balance between market supply and demand.