Methanol Market Prices Fluctuate Narrowly

April 13 News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from April 6th to 13th (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market first increased and then decreased from 3,490 CNY/ton to around 3,360 CNY/ton. The price fell by 3.72% during the period, up 18.62% month-on-month, and up 35.39% year-on-year. The trading in the Chinese methanol market is still mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, with the warming sentiment in the futures market gradually spreading to the spot market. Coupled with continuous inventory reduction by enterprises, local olefin external procurement demand, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the methanol price showed a significant jump.

As of the close on April 13, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed higher. The most active methanol futures contract, 2605, opened at 3,089 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,300 CNY/ton, and hit a low of 3,043 CNY/ton. It closed at 3,175 CNY/ton in late trading, up 27 yuan from the previous day’s settlement price, representing an increase of 0.86%. Trading volume totaled 1,584,666 contracts, with open interest standing at 361,418 contracts, and daily net increase in open interest at -56,991 contracts.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of April 13, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Overall coal supply remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is not strong, so coal prices are mostly stable, and the cost side is steady. The impact on costs is mixed—both positive and negative.

Comparison Chart of Coal/Bituminous Coal (Upstream Raw Material) and Methanol Price Trends:

Demand Side: From the downstream perspective, methanol prices continue to rise sharply. Although there has been some pullback, the weekly average price remains at a high level. Some downstream industries have shown weak responsiveness to these price increases, and negative feedback from end products is becoming increasingly severe, leading to a passive narrowing of production profits in most downstream sectors. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol continues to be supported by favorable factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply Side: Maintenance at Shanxi Coking, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Jingmen Yingde, Shenhua Ningmei, and Yunnan Yuntianhua plants; resumption of operations at Inner Mongolia Xinhang, Jiutai New Materials, and Inner Mongolia Hebaitai facilities. Overall, the volume of restored production exceeds the volume lost, leading to increased output and a rise in capacity utilization rates. The methanol supply side is being weighed down by bearish factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on April 10, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 679–681 per ton, down USD 10 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 141–143 cents per gallon; the FOB Rotterdam Europe methanol market closed at EUR 510–512 per ton, down EUR 9 per ton.

Looking ahead, supported by fundamentals such as a tight supply-demand balance and ongoing inventory destocking, although price increases have slowed somewhat, overall prices are still expected to remain firm. Overall, methanol analysts forecast that the Chinese spot methanol market will mainly consolidate at a relatively strong level.