Polyester Bottle Flakes Slightly Lowered on May 13, Showing Weak and Volatile Trends

May 13 news

On May 13, the price of polyester bottle chips in China slightly decreased and showed a weak fluctuation, with the mainstream price ranging from 8,850 to 9,000 CNY per ton. The cost has weakened, the peak season is not as strong as expected, the supply is ample, and the market sentiment is bearish. Transactions are light, mainly driven by small orders for immediate needs.

• Mainstream transaction price: 8850–9000 CNY/ton, large factories quote 8900–9100, small factories/cash 8700–8850.

• Futures (PR main contract): 8354 CNY/ton, down 82 yuan (-0.98%) intraday, showing weak fluctuation.

•Daily Market Highlights: Factories generally lowered prices by 50–150 CNY/ton, with apparent stability masking subtle reductions; transactions were moderate, price spreads were wide, and demand was mainly driven by small, urgent orders, with average production and sales reaching approximately 59%.

Two, Core Drivers

1. Cost side: PTA has weakened, and the support has loosened.

• PTA spot price is 6,630 CNY/ton, down more than 3% from the beginning of the month. With crude oil prices falling, PX prices have weakened, causing PTA prices to continue declining and shifting the cost center for bottle-grade PTA downward.

• MEG has been trading in a narrow range at lower levels (around 4,875 CNY/ton), with limited downward drag.

2. Demand side: The peak season is weaker than expected, with purchases made as needed.

• Beverage/sheet production is operating at 80%–90%, but there is no stockpiling; materials are purchased as needed, with resistance to high prices.

• Export orders are moderate, with procurement from Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries slowing down, leading to insufficient external demand support.

3. Supply and inventory: High production, moderate inventory

• Bottle chip operating rate is 80%+, with stable production from Yisheng Hainan, Sanfangxiang, and other facilities, ensuring ample supply.

• Industry inventory in China is 8-10 days, slightly higher but not stockpiled, and the pressure to reduce prices and inventory is manageable.

4. Mindset: Weakened expectations, prioritizing sales over profits

•The continuous sharp decline in filament has dragged down the overall sentiment of the polyester market, weakening confidence in bottle chips. Major manufacturers in China have led the price cuts to secure orders, and smaller factories have been forced to follow suit.

III. Technical Analysis

According to the commodity market analysis system, the future trend of PET can be analyzed from two dimensions:

1. When the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, the probability of an increase is higher. Conversely, the probability is lower. Starting from May 7, the 10-day moving average began to turn downward and approach the 20-day moving average, indicating a risk of a decline.

2. current location

Now, the 10-day position of PET in China is at a low level, the 20-day position is at a medium level, and the 30-day position is at a medium-high level.

IV. Future Market Forecast

Short-term (1–2 weeks): Weak consolidation, with slight downward dips.

•Price range: 8,700–8,900 CNY/ton; futures trading at a weaker level, ranging from 8,200 to 8,500 CNY/ton.

• Core judgment: Weaker costs, a lackluster peak season, and ample supply are the main factors. Spot prices appear stable but are actually declining, with transactions mainly consisting of small orders driven by immediate needs. Large manufacturers are more willing to offer discounts to move inventory, leading to a continued downward shift in price levels.

• Key support: 8,700 CNY/ton (bottom line for small-scale spot-market mills); resistance: 9,000 CNY/ton (price resistance from large-scale mills).