The spot price of acetone averaged 8,850 CNY/ton on the 1st, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous day. Based on the analysis system using the average difference method, the current price of acetone is at a high point in the nearly 1-year cycle. The market trend shows a fluctuating rebound (with a bearish bias), and there is no clear momentum for a unilateral rise in the short term, with limited upward space.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (CNY/ton) | Yesterday’s Value (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 72.50 | 255.00 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -146.25 | -233.75 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 386.87 | 527.50 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (－, ＋, －), which match the characteristics of a rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias), reason: the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, not meeting the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Overall, it is operating within an oscillating range, with a primarily bearish attribute.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Acetone 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all at the 5th level (high), with the current price in the top 20% range of the cycle. The upside potential is limited, and the risk of a high-level correction has increased.
Five, 1-year trend chart
VI. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream commodities in the acetone industry chain: propylene and benzene.
Acetone downstream products: diacetone alcohol, isophorone, diisopropylamine, acetonyl acetone, methacrylic acid, MIBK, isophorone, diacetone alcohol, vinyl ketone, methyl methacrylate, PMMA, isopropanol, acetone cyanohydrin, bisphenol A.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
