Rally Ends! Acrylic Acid Weakens at High Levels, Bearish Signals Emerge

April 8 news

I. Core Market Performance:

The acrylic acid market, after experiencing a wild surge in March, finally hit the "pause button" in early April, even showing some signs of "weakening." As of April 8, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was reported at 13083.33 CNY/ton. Although this price is still in the historically high range, it has slightly decreased by 0.25% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 13116.67 CNY/ton.

From the candlestick chart, the originally high gold price line begins to show a downward trend, and a key technical signal appears — "bearish crossover." The price line has fallen below the red 10-day moving average, indicating that the short-term strong one-sided uptrend may be ending, and the market is entering a period of consolidation and adjustment.

II. Analysis of Core Market Drivers

1. Supply Side: Since March, acrylic acid prices have continued to rise and are currently at historically high levels. Production enterprises enjoy ample profit margins, and operating rates remain high. However, some enterprises have scheduled maintenance plans. Coupled with persistently high propylene prices—the key raw material—costs provide strong support for prices. On the supply side, there is no significant increase in output at present, and the overall market remains tightly balanced.

2. Demand side: The operating rates of downstream industries such as acrylic esters and superabsorbent resins (SAP) are average. Terminal demand is entering the traditional low season, and downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high prices, mainly focusing on rigid demand procurement. The willingness to stockpile is low, making it difficult for the demand side to support further price increases, which has become the core pressure for the weakening market.

3. Cost End: As a core raw material for acrylic acid, the price of propylene has remained high recently, keeping the production cost of acrylic acid at a high level. Companies are unwilling to lower prices, which provides a bottom support for market prices and limits the space for price declines. As of April 8, the benchmark price of propylene was 9,591.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.18% compared to the beginning of the month (8,784.33 CNY/ton) in China.

III. In-depth Interpretation of the Xianhuotong Indicator:

Using the logic of the Xianhuotong commodity market analysis system, conduct a comprehensive “health check” on the current market conditions:

Positional Feature Analysis: From “High on the Entire Line” to “Short-Term Easing”—System data show that acrylic acid’s position rating remains at “High” (1 point) over 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and one-year horizons. This indicates that, from a long-term perspective, prices are still in an absolutely top-range area, with extremely high risk levels.

Key change: The 10-day position rating has suddenly shifted to “low.” This is a very clear short-term weakening signal. Although prices remain at high levels, short-term momentum has already waned—and a pullback has even begun.

Alert Signal: Intense “Over-Rising” Warning—The system’s bottom prompt reads: “1/07 breached the 10-day oversold level and has now surpassed the one-year over-rising threshold.” The “one-year over-rising” indicates that the current price (13,083.33) is nearly 6,000 yuan above the one-year average (7,196.68), signaling a substantial bubble risk. Meanwhile, the “10-day oversold” and “breach below” signals suggest that profit-taking traders are fleeing the market in the short term, and downward pressure on prices is building.

Trend Characteristics: The price has shifted from “above” to “entangled” and even “below” the moving averages. Previously, the price had consistently traded above all moving averages; however, on April 7–8, the price line broke below the 10-day moving average and is now approaching the 20-day moving average (the cyan line). According to the system’s definition, such a crossover between short-term moving averages and the price line often signals a shift in the trend—from a “one-sided upward move” to a “volatile, entangled pattern.” If the price continues to fall and breaks below the 20-day moving average, the downtrend will be officially confirmed.

IV. Future Market Forecast:

Short-term outlook (next 3-5 days): As the 10-day moving average has shifted to “lower levels,” while the long-term moving average remains at “higher levels,” the market is in a state of extreme contradiction. In the short term, prices are likely to experience sharp fluctuations within the range of 12,800 to 13,200 CNY per ton. Bulls are trying to hold onto the higher levels, while bears are taking advantage of the situation to push prices down and take profits.

To sum up, this week the acrylic market has remained in a high-level fluctuation, with prices showing a slight downward trend. The interplay between supply and demand is the central driving force: strong cost support limits the downside potential, while weak demand suppresses upward momentum. Combined with spot market indicators, the current market situation is characterized by a contradiction—long-term overvaluation coupled with short-term undervaluation. Although the moving average remains in a bullish trend, its momentum is waning. Short-term fluctuations and medium-term weakening are the most likely scenarios going forward. We advise market participants to proceed with caution, adopt a wait-and-see approach, and wait until the position rating meets the required threshold before making any strategic moves.