Moving Average Crossover, June Isooctanol Prices in China Rise

June 8th News

June Isobutanol Prices Fluctuate and Rise in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, on June 8, the price of isooctanol was 8,133.33 CNY per ton, up from 7,966.67 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month, representing a price increase of 2.09%. Since the start of June, several leading enterprises in Shandong have frequently raised their quoted prices recently, demonstrating a clear willingness to support prices and driving the market’s center of gravity slightly higher. As a result, the isooctanol market is experiencing a moderate upward trend.

Spot Market Trend Forecast:

In June, the isooctanol price moving average crossed above the 10-day and 20-day price moving averages. On June 7, the 10-day price moving average crossed above the 20-day price moving average, strengthening the signal for an increase in isooctanol prices, indicating an upward trend in isooctanol prices in China.

From a one-year perspective, the current price of 8100 CNY/ton is in the middle to high range historically, significantly higher than the low fluctuation zone from June to the end of 2025, and also higher than the average price for the whole year of 2025, which was 7249.70 CNY/ton. The price on June 8th is at a high level within 20 days but at a low level within 30 days. The price of 2-ethylhexanol is relatively high, and there is limited potential for a significant increase.

High cost support for propylene weakens in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, on June 8, the propylene price was 8,824.33 CNY/ton, a decrease from the June 1 propylene price of 9,037.67 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.36%. The propylene market is currently in a bottom-grinding stage. Strong guidance from the macroeconomic situation provides a safety cushion for the market. Propylene prices maintain a consolidation pattern, and the market lacks momentum for an increase, which continues to exert downward pressure on the costs faced by isooctanol, indicating that the downward pressure on isooctanol still exists.

Isobutanol supply in China is sufficient.

In 2026, it is expected that an additional 1.14 million tons of annual production capacity will be added in China, with the total supply expected to reach 3.73 million tons. In May, the operating load of isooctanol plants in China decreased, leading to a reduction in isooctanol supply, which further supported the increase in isooctanol prices.

Outlook for the Future

The octanol product data analyst believes that the octanol market in June has shown signs of recovery, but for the entire year, the "high-level pressure" faced by the Chinese market remains significant. The overcapacity in the industry is notable, and with the concentrated release of new capacity in June, inventory pressure may rapidly increase, becoming a key factor restricting future price increases. It is expected that the price of octanol will experience a wide range of fluctuations and consolidation in the future.