September 1st news
Recent high fluctuations in crude oil prices have provided strong cost support, coupled with the concentrated shutdowns and reduced operations of multiple polybutadiene rubber facilities in China, leading to a contraction in supply that has supported consecutive increases in spot quotations. Currently, from a quantitative indicator perspective, polybutadiene rubber is in a strong rebound and bullish pattern, with a short-term trend that is relatively strong, but there is a need to be cautious of the risk of high volatility.
The latest available data is up to August 31, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Indicator Name | Value as of 2026-08-31 | Value as of 2026-08-30 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 202 | 68 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -43 | -121 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 294.5 | 357 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current combination of mean difference change directions is (+, +, -), which constitutes a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is biased towards a bullish consolidation. Reason: The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for a consolidation pattern. This corresponds to a strong rebound signal with a bullish bias, indicating a stronger short-term trend.
4. Position Space Reference
Over the past 60 days, prices over a 3-month period have reached the 5th tier (high level), leaving limited room for further short-term gains.
1 year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (median), with reasonable fluctuation space in the medium term.
5. Trend chart display
6. Latest Fundamental Developments
Spot prices: On August 28, 2026, the butadiene rubber market in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions of China saw a significant increase. Spot traders raised their offers by 100 to 250 CNY per ton. The mainstream prices for butadiene rubber from Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi were 14,900 to 15,100 CNY per ton.
Supply side: Haopu New Materials' 60,000 tons/year high-cis butadiene rubber unit has been operating at reduced load since August 31; Taixiang Yubu (Nantong)'s 72,000 tons/year cobalt-based high-cis butadiene rubber unit began maintenance on August 28, with the maintenance expected to last about 3 weeks; Qilu Petrochemical's 70,000 tons/year high-cis butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since August 31, leading to a strong expectation of short-term supply contraction.
Cost side: Crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, with heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The cost support for butadiene rubber is strong, and the rise in futures prices has improved the sentiment in the spot market in China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
