Spread Widens as Shandong Cyclohexanone Market Prices Continue to Decline in May

June 2nd News

I. Price Trends

According to the data monitoring system, in May, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong, China, showed a slight decline in the first ten days, an accelerated drop in the middle and late ten days, and a further amplified price decrease at the end of the month, exhibiting a one-sided downward trend throughout the month.

At the beginning of the month, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was 97,500 CNY/ton. In the first week of May, the market price remained stable, with no significant changes in the market trend. Starting from the 7th, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong began to fall, continuing until mid-month when the downward trend stopped and there was a slight rebound, but the upward momentum was insufficient. Near the end of the month, the cyclohexanone market fell again, reaching the lowest point of the month by May 31st. By then, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was around 91,500-92,500 CNY/ton.

II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Supply and Demand

Supply is loose: Chinese cyclohexanone plants are operating at high levels, with major factories accumulating spot inventory. There is an ample supply of spot goods, and manufacturers continue to lower ex-factory quotes for inventory clearance, driving the overall market price downward.

weak demand: Cyclohexanone's core downstream sectors in China are experiencing plant maintenance, with lower operating rates, and rigid demand procurement is shrinking. The downstream terminal industries are being cautious with their purchases, resisting high prices, and only buying small quantities as needed. The market transactions are sluggish, and the overall demand performance is poor.

Cost Side: Cost-side support weakens

The price of upstream raw material benzene has fluctuated and declined, with the market price of benzene continuously decreasing. The production cost of cyclohexanone has also decreased accordingly, losing the support of cost. This has opened up room for manufacturers to adjust prices, further promoting the reduction in the price of spot goods.

III. Future Market Forecast

Currently, the cyclohexanone market trading atmosphere remains relatively weak, with limited effective support within the market. It is expected that in the short term, the loose supply and demand pattern will be difficult to quickly reverse, and spot prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. If benzene stops falling and rebounds, and downstream buyers start to replenish their inventories, the price decrease is likely to narrow. In the later period, more attention should be paid to the changes in demand support, the restart progress of downstream facilities, and the trend of cost factors. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can the price have a solid foundation for stabilization and rebound.

From a technical perspective

From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that at the end of May, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone once again fell below the 20-day moving average, and the downward difference continued to expand, predicting a downward trend in the future. Auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a high position among the five levels (annual position). Combining the two indicators, it is predicted that the market price of cyclohexanone in China will mainly continue to decline. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation status of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.