Supply and Demand Loosening—Shandong Cyclohexanone Market Operates Weakly After the Holiday

May 11th, according to the news,

I. Price Trends

After the May Day holiday, the cyclohexanone market prices in Shandong region of China showed a weak downward trend. Starting from the 8th after the holiday, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong fell continuously, with a cumulative decrease of 200 CNY/ton over three trading days, representing a price decrease of 2.05%. The downward trend showed signs of acceleration. As of May 11, the reference price for cyclohexanone in Shandong was around 9,500 to 9,550 CNY/ton.

2. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Cost Side: The price of upstream pure benzene raw material has failed to provide strong support for cyclohexanone, weakening the cost side’s role in underpinning cyclohexanone prices.

Supply and Demand: Currently, the overall demand for cyclohexanone downstream is relatively weak, with insufficient purchasing enthusiasm from factories. Coupled with some major Chinese producers lowering their factory prices, this has had a negative impact on the spot market.

Market Sentiment: Recently, the cyclohexanone market has experienced a continuous decline, breaking the previous sideways balance. Pessimism in the market has increased, and the willingness to sell within China has strengthened, further depressing transaction prices.

III. Future Market Forecast

Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively weak, with a loose supply and demand situation. It is expected that in the short term, the market trend will mainly be characterized by a weak consolidation. Specifically, more attention should be paid to the operating rates and procurement demands of downstream industries, as well as the price fluctuations of upstream raw materials and the maintenance plans of production enterprises in China.

From a technical perspective

From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that since the beginning of May, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone has continuously been above the 20-day moving average. However, starting from the 8th, the upward difference between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages has been continuously narrowing, predicting a gradual downward trend in the market. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a high position within the 5 levels (annual position). Combining the two indicators, it is predicted that the support for the cyclohexanone market in China will be limited, and there is a higher possibility of a downward trend. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation status of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.