Supply-Demand Mismatch: Acrylonitrile Market Stagnant and Relatively Weak in May

June 2nd News

In early May, due to rising raw material costs and supply tightening caused by maintenance at some acrylonitrile plants, companies were clearly holding firm on prices. However, downstream buyers were reluctant to chase the high prices, and the market quickly entered a stalemate at high levels. Mid-month, despite the high operating prices of propylene, producers were deeply mired in losses, providing a bottom support for prices. Nevertheless, downstream demand was insufficient, and spot sales were sluggish, leading to some local quotes softening first, with the market gradually declining. Entering the mid-to-late month, increased market supply further dampened sentiment, and prices continued to decline slightly.

Mid-month, acrylonitrile maintenance units gradually resumed operations. This includes Jilin Petrochemical's 684,000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit, which increased its operating load from the previous 50% to over 90%. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 520,000 tons unit also increased its load to around 75% from 50%, and Shanghai Secco will resume operations at 50% capacity. As a result, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry in China has risen from less than 65% to nearly 75%.

Comparison Table of Operating Rates for Major Downstream Products of Acrylonitrile

Acrylic: The operating load of the acrylic industry has fluctuated greatly. This month, the operating rate of acrylic production was 32.15%, a decrease of 14.79% month-over-month. Previously, due to the complete shutdown of Jilin Chemical Fiber's facilities and the suspension of operations at Ningbo Zhongxin and Hangzhou Bay facilities, the industry's load dropped to less than 30%. Recently, it has gradually recovered to a level slightly above 40%, and it is expected to further increase in June.

Regarding ABS: The performance of the ABS sector has been unsatisfactory. In May 2026, the average operating rate of China's ABS plants stood at 57.41%, down 2.64% month-on-month and 13.16% year-on-year. Although some plants that had undergone maintenance or reduced production—such as Sinopec Ineos Ningbo, Jilin Petrochemical, and Shandong Lihua Yi—have resumed stable operations, other plants—including Zhenjiang Chimei, Zhangzhou Chimei, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and LG Huizhou—experienced varying degrees of production cuts. Moreover, most remaining plants continued to operate at low capacities, resulting in a sustained decline in the average operating rate of ABS plants for the month of May.

Moreover, although overseas supply still faces a gap—specifically, in Northeast Asia, both the Dongseo Petrochemical plants in South Korea have halted operations for maintenance, and plants such as those operated by Formosa Plastics are running at low capacity—the regional demand has also weakened, leading to a corresponding decline in the atmosphere of inquiry on the international market. Although arbitrage opportunities for exports still exist, the room for such arbitrage has noticeably narrowed.

Looking ahead, in June, Liaoning Jinfafa and Sierbang have explicitly announced a reduction in production for one 260,000-ton unit each; no other producers currently plan to reduce output or shut down their facilities. As a result, supply is still expected to contract somewhat. However, specific maintenance schedules have not yet been released, so it remains crucial to monitor the actual implementation of these maintenance activities. Consequently, the supply side of acrylonitrile is unlikely to see significant changes in June. Overall, we estimate that acrylonitrile supply will continue to increase slightly in June, with domestic production expected to range between 360,000 and 370,000 tons—higher than the 360,000-ton output recorded in May.

Downstream, facilities such as Qifeng, Ningbo Zhongxin, and Hangzhou Bay Acrylic are expected to restart successively; most ABS facilities will still operate at relatively low loads, but some individual facilities may increase production; the production and end consumption of acrylamide will gradually enter the off-season. Therefore, overall, it is expected that, apart from a significant increase in the consumption of acrylic fiber, other industries will find it difficult to see noticeable increases. However, since the consumption share of acrylic fiber has already decreased in recent years, even with a simultaneous increase in supply, the phased recovery in demand will have limited support for the acrylonitrile market, resulting in generally weak overall demand.

Overall, the supply-demand gap in the acrylonitrile industry in China is expected to widen again in June and July. Although cost pressures continue to limit the extent of price declines, the downward trend in prices is difficult to reverse. However, since some acrylonitrile producers in China are already experiencing losses, especially in northern factories where prices are relatively low and some raw materials need to be sourced externally, the future bearish expectations based on market information may lead to unplanned fluctuations in supply. The existence of supply uncertainties will continue to limit market maneuvering space. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market in China will continue to slowly decline, and it will be necessary to continue monitoring the interactive changes in costs and supply.