June 15th, according to reports
According to Spotcom: In early June, the dichloromethane market in Shandong, China, continued the downward trend from late May, falling to a low of 2025 CNY/ton on June 2, with a single-day price decrease of 2.29%. Subsequently, the market began to recover and rebound. As of June 15, the mixed price of dichloromethane in bulk in the Shandong region was 2080 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the month.
Core Driver Analysis
Cost Side: Methanol—Relatively Strong Support; Liquid Chlorine Experiences Significant Volatility
Methanol: The market has been fluctuating with a strong upward trend, with the highest price increase reaching 8.89%. Currently, it has retreated but still provides strong cost support for dichloromethane. Liquid chlorine: The price fluctuations have been severe, with large swings in the range of 50-250 CNY/ton in the first half of June. At some points, even negative prices were observed, which has disrupted the comprehensive cost calculations for dichloromethane producers in China. It is expected that the profit pressure on these companies will remain high.
Supply side: Plant load reduction and contraction
In June, the total supply of dichloromethane in China is expected to remain sufficient, with the industry operating rate maintained at around 75%-80%. However, in the first half of the month, several major companies voluntarily reduced their production, providing some bottom support to the market: it is reported that the Dongyue plant has reduced its load to 50% capacity, and recently Luxi Chemical has also reduced its load. The Dongying Huatai plant plans to undergo maintenance for one week in mid-to-late June, and Jiangsu Liren will undergo maintenance for one week at the end of the month. It is expected that the marginal effect of the reduction in production will continue to be released.
Demand Side: Both domestic and external demand are weakening simultaneously, with a pronounced off-season effect.
Downstream demand has generally weakened. While demand in the refrigerant R32 sector remains resilient, traditional sectors such as pharmaceuticals, solvents, and metal cleaning continue to shrink due to the impact of environmental policies and the rise of alternative products, leaving overall domestic demand lacking sufficient support. Export support is also limited: although exports surged year-on-year in April, the overseas off-season arrived in June, leading to reduced procurement from Southeast Asia and South America.
Future Market Forecast:
In late June, the dichloromethane market in Shandong, China is expected to continue a narrow-range fluctuation trend. The coexistence of "slightly reduced supply" and "weak demand," along with the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, will mainly result in minor fluctuations within a price range.
