June 29th, according to reports
In June 2026, the Chinese toluene market showed an overall downward trend. Throughout the entire month, the Chinese toluene market was under the influence of a series of negative factors, resulting in a continuous decline in prices. The main factors driving the market trend were weaker costs, ample supply, and weak demand. The decrease in upstream raw material prices continuously weakened the bottom support of the market, while the continuous increase in supply put more pressure on the market. Additionally, the traditional off-season for downstream demand further dragged down the market. Under the combined impact of these negative factors, the market lacked upward momentum. According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of toluene in China was 6,581 CNY/ton on June 1st and dropped to 5,727.67 CNY/ton by June 29th, with a cumulative price reduction of 12.97% during this period.
Cost side:
In June, the overall support for toluene costs in China was insufficient, with a continuously weak trend. The international crude oil market experienced fluctuating and declining prices during the month, leading to a synchronized decline in Asian naphtha prices. The decrease in raw material prices significantly reduced the production pressure on refining and chemical enterprises, resulting in a month-on-month decline in the overall production cost of toluene. The profit margin in the industry remained stable, but there was a lack of strong positive factors to push up the market price from the cost side, making it difficult to effectively support the spot market. As of June 26, the settlement price for the August contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $69.23 per barrel, and the settlement price for the September contract of Brent crude oil futures was $72.60 per barrel.
Supply side:
This month, major refining and aromatics production facilities in China operated smoothly, with overall operations remaining stable and relatively high. The domestic toluene supply remained steady. At the same time, foreign trade imports arrived and were warehoused as usual, further enriching the market supply in various regions. Inventory levels in major storage areas gradually increased, and the market was well-supplied with circulating goods. The overall market supply was relatively loose, which put downward pressure on toluene prices.
Demand Side:
According to the commodity market analysis system, at the beginning of the month, the main ex-factory prices were in the range of 8,800–8,900 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, they had dropped to around 7,500–7,600 CNY/ton. The downstream PTA and polyester terminals were already in the off-season, and with the continuous decline in PX prices, the purchasing sentiment became even more cautious. As a result, the indirect demand for toluene also weakened, making it difficult for the overall demand to improve.
International Market: In June, the Asian PX spot market experienced a significant overall decline. At the beginning of the month, FOB Korea was quoted at USD 1,114–1,116 per ton, and CFR China at USD 1,135–1,137 per ton. Mid-month, affected by weakening crude oil prices, prices rapidly fell. By the end of the month, FOB Korea had dropped to USD 959–961 per ton, and CFR China to USD 980–982 per ton. The price decrease for the entire month exceeded USD 150 per ton.
As June marks the traditional off-season for the chemical industry, coupled with hot and rainy weather in many regions, production activities in downstream sectors such as coatings, inks, and adhesives—where solvents are used—have slowed down somewhat, leading to a noticeable decline in actual material demand. In addition, procurement in related fields like gasoline blending and fine chemicals has also been relatively subdued. Downstream manufacturers are mostly purchasing only what they need, reluctant to stock up large quantities. As a result, the market is dominated by small-scale, just-in-time purchases driven by immediate needs, and the overall trading atmosphere remains sluggish, with terminal demand showing only moderate performance.
Future Market Forecast:
Overall, in June, the toluene market was characterized by weak fundamentals under the combined influence of declining costs, ample supply, sluggish terminal demand, and a downward trend in PX prices along the industrial chain. As a result, trading activity in the market remained subdued, and traders mostly adopted a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the current market conditions, it is expected that the Chinese toluene market will continue to maintain a relatively weak and consolidating pattern in July, with little likelihood of a significant price rebound. In the short term, there are no signs yet of a strengthening in crude oil or naphtha prices, meaning the cost side still lacks effective support. Moreover, Chinese producers’ facilities are operating steadily, and the overall supply situation remains loose. Coupled with the fact that the off-season for various downstream industries has not yet ended, the recovery in downstream production capacity remains limited. Additionally, the broader aromatics industry chain continues to face downward pressure, ensuring that the market’s supply-demand imbalance will persist. Consequently, prices are likely to remain at low levels, fluctuating only slightly. Going forward, the key factors to watch closely will be fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the actual pace of recovery in downstream end-user industries.
