June 29th, according to reports
I. Overall Price Trends This Month (June 1–29)
Spot price (East China, water bottle grade, tax-inclusive delivered)
Open for trading in early June at RMB 7,950–8,070 per ton, continuing the volatile pattern seen in May at higher levels; the market still holds certain expectations regarding cost support.
Mid-to-late June (10th–15th): Prices plunged rapidly and sharply, with the largest single-day price decrease approaching 460 CNY/ton. Spot prices fell below the 7,200 CNY/ton mark from above 7,700 CNY/ton. The primary catalyst was the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the significant drop in international oil prices, which led to a simultaneous collapse in upstream raw material costs such as PTA and MEG, causing bottle chip prices to fall sharply in tandem.
Mid-to-late June (16th–25th): The market entered a phase of low-level, repeated fluctuations with a generally weak trend. The mainstream trading range narrowed to between 7,270 and 7,450 CNY per ton. Downstream buyers maintained only small-scale, essential purchases, resulting in an overall lackluster production and sales performance.
End of the month (26th–29th): The market experienced a slight technical rebound. Currently, the mainstream spot price in East China is between 7,350 and 7,480 CNY/ton; the main PR contract for bottle chip futures closed at 6,712 CNY/ton. After a sharp short-term decline, prices have slightly rebounded, but upward pressure remains significant.
Trend of FOB export quotations
At the beginning of the month, the FOB Shanghai reference price was between USD 1,080 and USD 1,095 per ton. Subsequently, weighed down by continued downward adjustments in China’s spot market, the mainstream negotiation range at month-end had fallen to between USD 1,060 and USD 1,075 per ton. Overseas buyers largely adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and coupled with the resumption of production at local facilities in Southeast Asia, which diverted some export demand, overseas sales orders saw a noticeable decline compared to their April peak.
II. Analysis of Core Driving Factors
(1) Cost Side: Geopolitical premium fades, cost support collapses (the main reason for this month’s decline).
From February to May, affected by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices rose sharply, driving up the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG significantly and pushing spot prices for bottle flakes briefly above 9,000 CNY per ton. As June began, geopolitical conflicts eased and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, causing crude oil prices to rapidly reverse their earlier gains. Upstream raw material prices continued to decline, leaving bottle flakes without strong cost-based support and triggering a sharp correction in their valuation.
The current PTA spot price is about 6,300 CNY/ton, and MEG is about 4,670 CNY/ton. The theoretical processing fee for bottle chips remains at a relatively high level of 650 to 700 CNY/ton. The profitability of factories is still acceptable, and there is no intention of large-scale voluntary production cuts in the short term, which also limits the space and strength of price rebound.
(2) Supply side: Stable production, the supply and demand situation in China has shifted from tight to loose.
This month, the industry’s average operating rate remained steady at 72% to 74%. With previously scheduled maintenance units resuming production in a concentrated manner, coupled with the planned commissioning of several newly built bottle flake production facilities, market expectations have shifted from tight supply in the first half of the year to a more relaxed supply situation.
Factory inventories have seen a slight increase, with current in-factory inventory days at approximately 9.67, a slight rise from the previous period. The overall pressure to reduce inventory is not yet significant, but companies' willingness to lower prices to sell goods has increased, and the momentum for spot price increases is insufficient.
(3) Demand side: The traditional peak season is not as strong, with downstream demand mainly driven by essential needs, and there is a clear resistance to high prices.
June to July is traditionally the peak season for beverage and bottled water consumption in China, but bottle chip prices have continued to rise in the first half of the year. Most downstream preform and beverage factories have already locked in long-term orders in advance and are generally cautious about restocking at high prices. The industry's average production and sales rate is less than 60%, with purchases mainly driven by necessity to avoid the risk of stockpiling.
In terms of exports, China's bottle chip exports reached 601,200 tons in April, the highest point of the year. However, from May to June, due to the completion of overseas advance stockpiling, the increase in ocean freight costs, and the release of production capacity in Southeast Asia, export orders decreased month-on-month, weakening the support for the digestion of goods in the Chinese market.
The positive factor is that, following this month's sharp price correction, some downstream companies have been replenishing their inventories in small batches at lower prices, leading to a slight improvement in inquiry activity and providing some restraint on further price declines.
(4) Current Profit Situation of the Industry in China
Currently, the processing fee for bottle chips remains high, with mainstream companies in China making a profit of about 650 to 700 CNY per ton. Driven by high profits, the willingness for plant maintenance is low, and it is difficult for the operating rate to decline significantly in the short term, which also limits the potential for price rebound. If the cost of raw materials continues to weaken, there is a possibility that the processing fee will be reduced.
III. Regional price differentiation
East China market (mainstream): Spot prices for bottle-grade PET are 7,350 to 7,480 CNY per ton, with the most active trading, serving as a barometer for the national market.
South China market: 7,380 to 7,500 CNY/ton, slightly higher than East China, supported by strong local beverage consumption demand.
Recycled bottle flake market: Prices are diverging due to differing environmental certification standards. Demand for food-grade, clear-white flakes remains stable, while ordinary recycled materials continue to perform weakly, mirroring the downturn in virgin bottle flakes.
IV. Outlook for Future Market Trends (Short-Term Forecast for July)
Price range: The mainstream price is expected to fluctuate widely in July, trading within a range of 7,200 to 7,600 CNY per ton, making it difficult to see a sustained upward or downward trend.
Upward pressure: Supply is becoming more relaxed, downstream seasonal restocking is nearing its end, and export growth is limited. As prices rebound to around 7,600 CNY per ton, they will likely face strong selling pressure.
Below support: The raw material prices have limited room for further sharp declines in the short term, and low prices will stimulate restocking by essential demand. There is strong support around 7200 CNY/ton.
