June 29th, news:
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices in China showed an overall upward trend this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 620 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, it had risen to 669 CNY/ton, representing a 7.9% increase, but a 20.07% decrease compared to the same period last year. On June 28, the chlor-alkali index stood at 738 points, unchanged from the previous day, down 65.32% from its peak of 2128 points (on October 24, 2021), and up 4.38% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)
II. Market Analysis
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices in China have generally risen this month. In Shandong, the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 650-690 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan around 760-820 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 1900-1950 CNY/ton. At the beginning of the month, regions such as northern and central Shandong maintained active shipments, leading to a recent decline in enterprise inventories, which provided some support to the prices. In the downstream alumina sector, a certain alumina plant in Shanxi faces the risk of production cuts or even shutdown due to red mud pond issues, driving up market bullish sentiment and providing some support to spot prices. The enthusiasm for purchasing by downstream alumina is relatively high. At the end of the month, there will be maintenance at some chlor-alkali enterprises, leading to lower operating rates, and enterprise inventories are expected to show a favorable trend. Downstream alumina manufacturers are actively stocking up, providing strong support to caustic soda prices. On the bearish side: Accumulation of caustic soda inventories in enterprises, and continued sluggish demand from non-aluminum downstream sectors, where purchases are mostly made on a need basis without any improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that the recent caustic soda prices have been weak. Recently, downstream alumina purchases in China have been good, and the current alumina procurement prices are favorable, leading to a decrease in caustic soda inventories, which supports caustic soda prices. However, because non-aluminum enterprises have average purchasing levels, the overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices may trend towards consolidation, depending on the specific downstream market demand.
