This Week's PVC Market Rebounds in China (1.19-23)

January 23 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, this week (1.19-23) the PVC spot market in China stopped falling and started to rise, with a significant price increase. By Friday, the average price of SG-5 type PVC produced by the calcium carbide method in China was 4,560 CNY per ton, an increase of 2.22% within the week.

II. Market Analysis

Supply side: This week, the spot market for PVC in China saw a growing speculative buying sentiment. Driven by the futures market, the spot market experienced a rebound this week. The market showed an improvement in supply and demand, with export volume continuing to grow. Additionally, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC production slightly decreased this week, with some enterprises operating at less than 50% capacity. Apart from this, the main factors were the increase in trading volume and the improvement in market sentiment.

From an inventory perspective, the market has recently maintained relatively high trading volumes, and social inventories continue to decline. However, given the previously large base inventory levels, the current spot supply remains relatively ample.

Cost end: This week, the market price of calcium carbide rebounded from a low, and the market re-entered an upward channel. According to monitoring, the weekly price increase of calcium carbide in China this week was 0.79%. The increase in downstream procurement has had a certain stimulating effect, and the price of PVC has shown a rebound trend.

III. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that in the short term, PVC supply and demand will remain stable. Later, as the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a decrease in factory operating rates, and enterprise inventory is still in the process of being reduced. From the demand side, external demand remains strong, but downstream operations in China may be affected by the approaching holiday and are expected to decline. The supply and demand competition will intensify later, and it is anticipated that PVC prices may show a fluctuating trend, making it difficult to have a very strong performance. The market should be cautious about the current upward trend.