July 30th News
In July 2026, the toluene market price in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall upward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system data, the toluene market price in China was 5,741 CNY/ton on July 1st and 6,600 CNY/ton on July 30th, with a cumulative increase of 14.96% during the period. This month, the toluene market was influenced by multiple factors such as cost support and adjustments in supply and demand, resulting in a significant shift in the price center. Although there was a slight decline at the end of the month, the overall price increase was significant, and the market trading atmosphere changed in stages with the price fluctuation.
Cost Side:
In July, the cost support in the toluene market became a key driver of price increases. As the core upstream raw material for toluene, crude oil showed a strong and volatile price trend this month. The tightening of supply and demand in the international crude oil market, along with geopolitical factors, boosted oil prices, driving up the production costs of toluene. Monitoring data shows that the rise in upstream raw material prices directly increased the production costs for toluene manufacturers, who were strongly motivated to maintain high prices. This provided a solid cost foundation for the increase in toluene market prices. The strong cost support persisted throughout the first half of July, playing a crucial role in the significant rise in toluene prices. As of July 29, the settlement price for the September contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $84.46 per barrel, and the settlement price for the October contract of Brent crude oil futures was $88.09 per barrel.
Supply side:
In July, the supply of toluene in the Chinese market was generally tight, providing strong support for prices. This month, the facility utilization rate of toluene producers in China remained at a medium to low level. Some refineries underwent plant maintenance and load adjustments, leading to a reduction in the spot supply of toluene. At the same time, toluene inventories at ports continued to run at low levels, with limited market circulation, and the tight situation of spot resources persisted. The tightening of the supply side resulted in insufficient spot circulation, and merchants were reluctant to sell, further driving up toluene prices. This became an important supporting factor for the rise in toluene prices in July.
Demand side:
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 30, Sinopec's PX execution price has been increased to 8,500 CNY/ton, up 600 CNY/ton from 7,900 CNY/ton on June 30. Currently, East China, North China, Central China, and South China are all implementing this price. Petrochemical plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal sales. The continuous rebound of overseas PX prices from a low level has provided cost support, leading to an increase in the ex-factory quotations in China. However, the recovery in demand for downstream products such as PTA and polyester is limited, and companies are less willing to follow the price increase. End-users remain cautious in their procurement, making it difficult for the demand side to provide strong support.
International Market: In July, Asian PX spot prices rebounded from their low point. At the beginning of the month, prices continued the weak trend seen in June; by month-end, FOB Korea had risen to between USD 1,045 and USD 1,047 per ton, while CFR China reached between USD 1,066 and USD 1,068 per ton. The recovery in crude oil prices during the month provided cost support, enabling prices to gradually recover from their bottom levels—up more than USD 86 per ton compared to end-June levels. However, downstream demand remained sluggish, limiting the strength of the rebound, and market conditions continued to closely follow fluctuations in crude oil prices.
In July, the demand for toluene in China showed a divergence, with market transactions steadily following under the support of rigid demand. In downstream industries, as an important chemical raw material, toluene maintained rigid demand procurement in sectors such as coatings, rubber, and pharmaceuticals. Although some downstream enterprises entered the traditional off-season at the end of the month, leading to a slight decline in purchasing enthusiasm, with procurement mainly based on need, and a slowdown in market transactions, the stable operation of downstream industries in the first half of the month, along with the release of concentrated restocking demand, drove up the transaction volume in the toluene market. Overall, in July, the rigid demand from downstream sectors for toluene in China remained solid, and the stable operation on the demand side played a bottom-supporting role for market prices, maintaining toluene prices at high levels.
Future Market Prediction:
In August, the Chinese toluene market will continue to be influenced by multiple factors including costs and supply and demand. On the supply side, the amount of spot toluene available is expected to increase slightly, potentially easing the current tight supply situation. On the demand side, the off-season characteristics of downstream industries may become more pronounced, leading to continued weak procurement demand. Overall, it is anticipated that the market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations with minor adjustments, with prices fluctuating within the current range. Close attention should be paid to the trends in crude oil prices, refinery operating conditions, and the progress of demand recovery in downstream sectors.
