Multiple Negative Factors Weigh on Butadiene in April, Driving Prices Lower

April 29 News

According to the commodity market analysis system, in April 2026, the butadiene market in China experienced a downward fluctuation, with a significant price decrease for the month, and the overall market was under pressure. From April 1st to 29th, the price of butadiene in China decreased from 18,333.33 CNY/ton to 12,566.67 CNY/ton, a decline of 31.45% within the period. In summary, the market's downward trend this month was mainly influenced by the weakening of cost support, ample supply of spot goods, and continuously weak demand, resulting in a substantial price drop during the month.

Cost Perspective: In April, the cost support for butadiene shifted from strong to weak, becoming one of the key drivers behind the price decline. As a byproduct of ethylene production via naphtha cracking, butadiene prices are highly correlated with trends in crude oil and naphtha prices. At the beginning of the month, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, keeping international crude oil prices at elevated levels and sustaining high naphtha costs, which provided a relatively strong cost floor for butadiene. However, as the situation in the Middle East gradually eased throughout the month, market expectations of tight crude oil supplies cooled down, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate downward. This, in turn, led to a drop in naphtha and ethylene cracker feedstock prices, gradually eroding the premium that high crude oil prices had been passing on to butadiene. Consequently, cost-side support for higher prices continued to weaken, leaving butadiene without significant upward support and putting downward pressure on its price. As of April 28, the settlement price for the June contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $99.93 per barrel, while the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures was $111.26 per barrel.

Supply side:

In April, the supply situation of butadiene in China underwent a significant change, shifting from a previously tight to a more relaxed state, with ample spot availability and accumulating inventory further suppressing market prices. Although some previously shut-down facilities have not fully resumed operations, the adjustment in the operating load of Asian ethylene plants has led to an increase in the supply of by-product butadiene from cracking. The operating load of butadiene plants in China increased compared to the previous month, with steady growth in spot production. At the same time, the import arbitrage window opened during the month, and a large number of long-haul shipments arrived at Chinese ports, replenishing the domestic spot market. This caused the social inventory in China to continue to rise. By the end of April, inventories at East China ports and Shandong refineries both showed a significant increase, highlighting the overall inventory pressure. The clear trend of a more relaxed supply situation further intensified the bearish sentiment in the market.

Sinopec's various sales companies have set the butadiene price at 12,800 CNY/ton as of April 28, a decrease of 5,400 CNY/ton from the 18,200 CNY/ton on March 31.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 336 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 12,300 CNY/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a price of 12,900 CNY/ton.

Demand side:

In April, the downstream demand for butadiene in China remained weak, with insufficient support from rigid demand and a weakening export momentum, becoming the key factors dragging down prices. Major downstream industries such as synthetic rubber (polybutadiene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber), and ABS, faced profit losses due to high butadiene prices, forcing companies to halt operations or reduce production. By mid-to-late April, the operating load of polybutadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber facilities had declined year-over-year, slowing the consumption rate of raw materials. Downstream enterprises adopted a cautious purchasing attitude, mainly maintaining rigid demand and price suppression, lacking the willingness for bulk restocking. In terms of exports, early in April, concerns over supply in the Asian market led to a high enthusiasm for butadiene exports from China. However, as the situation in the Middle East eased during the month, downstream companies in South Korea, Japan, and other regions, in an effort to control costs, reduced their plant load, leading to cautious inquiries and significant price suppression for butadiene. This resulted in a decline in China's export transaction prices and a reduction in orders, further exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction in China.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 27, the butadiene rubber market in East China has shown a weak downward trend. International crude oil prices remain high, while the cost of butadiene rubber has decreased, leading to a price reduction of 300 CNY per ton. Spot traders have slightly lowered their offers. Currently, Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu butadiene rubber are quoted at 16,000-16,300 CNY per ton; some private brands are quoted around 15,900-16,100 CNY per ton.

Future Market Forecast:

Taking into account multiple bullish and bearish factors—including costs, supply, and demand—we expect China’s butadiene market in May to exhibit a narrow trading range characterized by weak fluctuations and a gradually slowing downward trend. On the negative side, inventory pressure on the supply side remains unabated, with additional imported supplies likely to continue arriving in the coming period. Meanwhile, downstream industries such as synthetic rubber and ABS are experiencing slow profit recovery, limiting their ability to increase operating rates and leaving rigid demand still insufficiently supported. On the positive side, butadiene prices have now fallen to relatively low levels; if crude oil prices rebound, this could provide some bottom support. In addition, certain downstream enterprises may take the opportunity to replenish inventories at lower prices, providing a temporary boost. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East persist, which could trigger market sentiment swings. We anticipate that the butadiene market will mainly experience narrow-range fluctuations in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to trends in crude oil prices, as well as the status of downstream operating rates and purchasing activities.