August 18 news
The current phenol differential index shows a weak rebound (bearish) signal, with prices in the mid-range of the 1-year cycle, offering relatively balanced potential for increases and decreases. Recently, major Chinese producers have repeatedly lowered phenol factory prices. Downstream rigid demand procurement is cautious, coupled with insufficient raw material support, leading to a short-term weak and volatile market.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-17) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -27.5 | -61 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -138.5 | -127 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -143.75 | -116.38 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, -), which is a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating, reason: the direction of change of the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent. Among them, the 5-day average difference has rebounded from yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences have further weakened compared to yesterday, which is in line with the characteristics of a weak rebound oscillation. The short-term market trend is expected to be weak.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Phenol prices over a 1-year cycle are in the mid-range, with relatively balanced potential for increases and decreases. There are no obvious extreme positions that limit the potential for price changes. Subsequent attention should be paid to the impact of changes in market supply and demand as well as cost factors on the price range.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
Price adjustments by enterprises: On August 17, 2026, Li Hua Yi Wei Yuan Chemical lowered its ex-factory settlement price for phenol by 50 CNY/ton to 8,000 CNY/ton. Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical also reduced its phenol price by 50 CNY/ton to 7,900 CNY/ton. All enterprise units are operating normally and shipping goods according to schedule. Previously, from August 12 to 13, several companies including Sinopec North China and Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical had already successively lowered their prices.
Upstream-downstream linkage: The spot supply in the downstream bisphenol A market has increased, prompting holders to actively sell their inventories, while downstream rigid demand procurement remains cautious. Meanwhile, the price of phenol-ketone raw materials has weakened, lacking sufficient cost support, which further weighs on the phenol market.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
