October 23rd, according to reports
According to the spot market analysis system: Recently, lithium carbonate has experienced five consecutive declines. As of October 23, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 95,000 CNY per ton, a 20% decrease from 120,000 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month, and a 27% decrease compared to the same period last month.
Macro headwinds combined with sector-wide pullbacks have amplified the decline in both stocks and futures.
Macro-level negative factors were concentrated. The expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve boosted the US dollar index, creating a generally bearish atmosphere in the commodity market. At the same time, CATL's third-quarter earnings fell short of expectations, triggering a broader correction in the lithium battery sector, with the stock and futures linkage amplifying the decline. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, concentrated selling by investors became the direct driver of the sharp drop in the market.
Supply and Demand Divergence: Reality is Tight, Expectations are Loosening
On the supply side, data show that weekly lithium carbonate production increased last week, while China’s multiple resource‑based projects are seeing a concentrated ramp-up of long‑term capacity. In the salt‑lake segment, expansion continues, with several large‑scale salt‑lake projects in Tibet entering construction and commissioning phases, ensuring a steady release of low‑cost incremental lithium output. On the lepidolite front, approval for the Jianshawo mega‑lithium deposit in Yichun has resumed, and the Qiankeng lithium mine has made regulatory progress; once these projects reach full production, they will add tens of thousands of tons of LCE, undermining the previously bullish narrative of constrained lepidolite supply. Meanwhile, new resource reserves have been filed for hard‑rock lithium deposits in western Sichuan, and newly built mining‑and‑beneficiation facilities are advancing steadily, pushing up the upper limit of China’s resource supply. Integrated smelting‑and‑refining capacities are being developed in tandem, with leading companies continuing to expand lithium‑salt production capacity; as both upstream mineral resources and downstream smelting capacity grow in sync, market expectations for a significant increase in future supply are strengthening.
Overseas lithium resource supply flexibility has also increased. Australia's main lithium mines continue to expand, and the shipment of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe in Africa has resumed. Lithium brine projects in Brazil and South America are advancing towards commissioning. In the coming years, the import supply of lithium concentrate will remain loose, gradually alleviating raw material bottlenecks and opening up long-term supply space for lithium carbonate from the upstream.
Demand Side: Entering the seasonal lull: Lithium‑ion battery production in November is forecast at 323 GWh, down 5% month over month; from October 1 to 18, retail sales of new‑energy passenger vehicles fell 13% year over year. With the traditional peak season drawing to a close, demand expectations have weakened. Meanwhile, rising trade barriers overseas are weighing on export prospects, further constraining the long‑term growth potential of power batteries. On the energy‑storage side, the earlier surge in installations has already depleted future demand, leading to project delays and a slower tendering pace. Consequently, battery‑pack production forecasts have been revised downward multiple times, and the growth rate of what was once seen as a second growth driver has been scaled back, dashing bullish expectations. Changes in procurement strategies among battery and materials manufacturers have intensified price pressures. Amid expectations of continued price declines, downstream players are broadly adopting low‑inventory strategies, no longer locking in long‑term contracts or stockpiling; they now source as needed, resulting in fewer long‑term agreements and sluggish spot‑market activity.
Overall, the current core issue is the negative synergy between increased future supply and weaker-than-expected demand during the peak season, compounded by concentrated short selling in the market. The bears have the upper hand, and there is a possibility that lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the short term. Specific attention should still be paid to changes in market supply and demand.
