August 18th, news:
On August 17, 2026, the methanol market in China showed a clear upward trend. According to the average difference method, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences all showed a positive change compared to the previous day, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend. In terms of fundamentals, companies such as Shandong Union, Yizhou Technology, and Shandong Mingquan continuously raised their methanol quotations. The auction prices of Yankuang Guohong and Inner Mongolia Rongxin also increased. Some facilities, such as the 640,000 tons/year plant maintenance at Yankuang Group and the shutdown of the Inner Mongolia Heimao facility, have led to a reduction in supply. In the international market, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol prices have risen, with Petronas' facility experiencing a temporary shutdown or planned major maintenance, leading to an expected tightening of international supply. These factors collectively support the price increase.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-17) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 24.58 | 23.33 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 55.75 | 52.59 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 23.42 | 10.66 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The trend is clear (upward), and the three moving averages all showed positive changes compared to the previous day.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Clearly on the rise. Reason: According to the mean difference method, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day mean differences all showed the same direction of change as yesterday—positive—thus meeting the criteria for a clearly upward trend. From a fundamental perspective, companies such as Shandong Alliance in China, Yizhou Technology, and Shandong Mingquan have consecutively raised their methanol quotations; auction-winning prices from enterprises like Yankuang Guohong and Inner Mongolia Rongxin have also risen. Additionally, Yankuang Group’s 640,000-ton-per-year plant is undergoing maintenance, and the Black Cat facility in Inner Mongolia has been shut down, leading to a contraction in supply. On the international front, the CFR Southeast Asia market price has increased, and with Petronas’ plant experiencing temporary shutdowns due to malfunctions or scheduled overhauls, global supply expectations are tightening. These multiple factors collectively support the upward movement in prices.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price is in the fourth tier (mid-to-high range), and its upside potential is somewhat limited.
The 3-month cycle price is in the second tier (mid-to-low range), indicating some upward momentum.
The 1-year cycle price is in the third tier (median), situated in the middle of the price range, with a relatively balanced trend.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
