September 30 report:
As of September 29, 2026, the PVC spot basis indicator is signaling a pullback (leaning bullish), with prices trading in a volatile range. Over the one-year cycle, prices remain in the mid-to-low range, suggesting that downside room in the medium to long term is relatively limited. We recommend closely monitoring upstream calcium carbide and ethylene price dynamics, as well as demand‑side developments in downstream pipe and profile markets.
Data Explanation
The latest available data is up to September 29, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Difference Type | Value on September 29, 2026 | Value on September 28, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 13.20 | -4.80 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -1.80 | -1.10 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -65.35 | -81.70 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current average difference change combination is (+, -, +), which belongs to a retest (bullish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in PVC prices in China is fluctuating.
Reason: The direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages is not entirely consistent with that of the previous day, thus failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend.
4. Position Space Reference
On the 60-day cycle, PVC prices are at a mid-range level; on the 3-month cycle, they are also at a mid-range level; and on the 1-year cycle, they stand at a lower-mid range. Consequently, the medium- to long-term downside potential is relatively limited, while in the short term, there are no clear directional constraints on unilateral price movements.
5. 1 Year Price Trend Chart
6. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream commodities in the PVC industry chain include chlorine, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride, calcium carbide, and ethylene; downstream products encompass PVC foam, PVC automotive components, cables, wires, shoe soles, PVC profiles, toys, PVC pipes, synthetic leather, PVC sheets, and PVC films. Fluctuations in supply and demand at both upstream and downstream stages can exert ripple effects on PVC prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
