August 18th, news:
Today, the spot toluene market was boosted by geopolitical factors that pushed up crude oil prices, low inventories in China, and a collective price increase by local refineries in Shandong over the weekend. Traders showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, leading to a robust spot market. Sinopec's South China company raised its listed price for toluene by 100 CNY/ton to 7,050 CNY/ton, while the mainstream quotation in the East China region increased by 100 CNY/ton to 6,950-7,000 CNY/ton. The mean difference indicator shows that the current market is in a state of stagnation warning (bearish). Considering the position in the price cycle, the 1-year cycle is at a mid-low level with limited downside, but the 60-day and 3-month cycles are at high levels, suggesting that there may be pressure on short-term upward movement.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-17) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 31.00 | 9.33 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 87.00 | 102.00 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 73.83 | 47.17 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (+, -, +), which belongs to a stagnation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating (with a stagnation warning and a bearish bias). Reason: The difference between the 5-day and 20-day moving averages has widened compared to yesterday, but the 10-day moving average difference has narrowed. The changes in these three indicators are not entirely consistent, which fits the definition of oscillation. Among them, the decline in the 10-day moving average difference indicates that the mid-term upward momentum has weakened, leading to a judgment of a stagnation warning with a bearish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited upside potential.
Price position for the 3-month cycle: High, with significant upward pressure.
1 year cycle price position: at a medium to low level, with limited downside space
Overall, toluene's short-term price increases are constrained by high levels, with insufficient momentum for further gains. However, the risk of a mid-term decline is relatively low. Subsequent attention should be paid to the trend in crude oil prices and changes in downstream demand in China.
V. Trend Chart Display
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
Enterprise Quote: On August 17, Sinopec South China Company raised its listed price for toluene by 100 CNY/ton, bringing the new price to 7,050 CNY/ton. In the East China region, the mainstream spot price range for toluene is between 6,950 and 7,000 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day.
Market driver: Geopolitical factors have pushed up crude oil prices, while toluene inventories in China remain low. Coupled with the overall price increase of local refineries in Shandong over the weekend, traders have a strong mindset to hold prices firm, leading to a stronger spot market.
Industry chain linkage: Toluene's upstream raw material is naphtha, while its downstream products include trimethylbenzene, trimethylchlorosilane, methylcyclohexane, TDI, PX, and several other categories. Currently, downstream demand is primarily driven by rigid procurement, with little willingness to chase price increases.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
