July 3rd News
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 3, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, is 5966 CNY/ton. Compared to June 26 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 6400 CNY/ton), the price has decreased by 434 yuan, a 6.77% decrease.
I. Review of Price Trends
From the data monitoring system, it can be seen that in the first week of July, the market trend for n-butanol in Shandong, China showed a weak downward trend. The market trend for n-butanol continued to decline, with negotiation focuses continuously dropping, and the gap between high and low prices gradually widening. On July 1st, the low price of n-butanol fell to 5700 CNY/ton, after which the market operated in a relatively weak and organized manner. As of July 3rd, the reference price for n-butanol in the Shandong region was around 5700-6400 CNY/ton.
II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Demand Side: The downstream industries of acrylic acid, butyl acetate, coatings, and adhesives have shown relatively weak operating rates, with insufficient rigid demand for procurement. Market sentiment toward purchasing is cautious, and transactions are mainly characterized by price reductions.
Supply side: Chinese n-butanol plant operating rates are maintained at high levels, with ample spot circulation, leading to an accumulation of inventory pressure.
III. Future Market Forecast
Currently, the n-butanol market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, with the market mainly undergoing consolidation. There are no significant positive signals. In the short term, it is expected that n-butanol prices will mainly undergo minor adjustments. More attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream industry operations and the increase in purchase orders, as well as whether plant maintenance/shutdown plans in China will tighten the supply of spot goods.
Technical Analysis
From the SpotCom analysis system, it can be seen that currently, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol is below the 20-day moving average, and the negative divergence is gradually widening, indicating a continued downward risk in line with market trends. Supporting indicators show that the current market price of n-butanol is at a medium to low level in the mid to long term (one-year position), with limited room for further decline. Combining the two indicators, it is predicted that there is still a possibility of a downward trend in the Shandong n-butanol market, but the space for decline is limited.
