August 18 news
Since August, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) in China has stopped falling and rebounded, showing an upward trend with fluctuations. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 18, the price of SBR in the East China market was 14,650 CNY per ton, an increase of 8.99% from 13,441 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month. As of the 18th, Sinopec had cumulatively raised the factory price by 800 CNY per ton.
Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international crude oil prices, leading to a significant increase in upstream butadiene prices and high-level consolidation in styrene prices, which has raised the production costs of SBR. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 18, the price of butadiene was 11,733 CNY/ton, an increase of 17.14% from 10,066 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month; as of August 18, the price of styrene was 8,860 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.55% from 8,725 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.
The styrene-butadiene rubber industry in China is maintaining a high operating rate of 70%-77%. Shenhua Chemical plans to conduct maintenance from late August to early September. Export orders are decent, and the inventory pressure on factories is not significant. The impact of imported supplies is limited.
Demand remains in the traditional off-season, with tire manufacturers seeing a slight increase in production, but the end market recovery is limited. Downstream players are resistant to high-priced raw materials and mostly maintain procurement based on demand. Large-scale restocking has not yet started, and there is no active upward momentum from the demand side. As of August 14, the operating rate of semi-steel tire producers in China was 64.32%, and the operating rate of all-steel tire producers in Shandong was 63.01%.
Looking ahead, the styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. Butadiene provides a cost floor, while maintenance shutdowns are causing supply disruptions. However, downstream demand lacks large-scale restocking. If butadiene prices surge and then fall back, SBR could face downside risks. In September, pay close attention to the realization of strong seasonal demand during the "Golden September" period. If tire restocking and production scheduling proceed smoothly, prices should find some support. In the later stage, key factors to watch include international crude oil and butadiene price trends, the pace of plant restarts, and changes in tire production utilization rates.
