August 14 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 7 to 14, China’s BDO price remained at 7,783 CNY/ton, up 0.86% month-on-month but down 1.65% year-on-year. Plant utilization rates continued to decline, reducing supply volumes; positive factors on the supply side persisted, prompting holders to actively support the market. Downstream demand increased, with most transactions following contract prices. Spot market transactions for small, immediate-need orders were conducted at relatively high prices, causing the BDO market’s price center to inch upward within a narrow range.
Supply Side: In terms of facilities, although the Shuguang Lvhua plant has restarted, the second phase of Xinye and one set of Guotai Xinhua's facilities have temporarily shut down, leading to a continued decline in the industry's capacity utilization rate. The supply of spot goods has decreased, and the supportive factors for the supply side continue. The industry's losses persist, and high transactions in online auctions have made suppliers strongly resistant to price declines. BDO supply is influenced by these positive factors.
Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Plants:
| Region | Plant Dynamics |
|---|---|
| Shaanxi Shanhua | Unit 1 shut down in early August 2024; Unit 2 shut down on February 22, 2025; restart date yet to be determined |
| Xinjiang Meike | Unit 3, with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year, is currently shut down |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | The 300,000-ton/year BDO unit is currently operating at around 70-80% capacity |
| Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua | Two units totaling 200,000 tons are running relatively stably |
| Xinjiang Xinye | Units 1 (60,000 tons) and Unit 2 (70,000+70,000 tons) for BDO are operating steadily |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Unit 2, with a capacity of 140,000 tons, is scheduled for a 15-day maintenance shutdown starting mid-August |
| Sichuan Tianhua | Units 1 (25,000 tons/year) and Unit 2 (60,000 tons) are operating steadily |
Cost perspective, in terms of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide in China has fluctuated by 50 CNY per ton, with tight market supply and a strong intention to maintain prices. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has shown a strong upward trend. With the rising prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol, there are favorable factors affecting the cost perspective of BDO.
Demand side, in the downstream sector, overall production has increased, leading to higher demand for raw materials. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively strong, and the holding companies have a stable trading mentality, which drives the market prices to rise within a certain range. However, the downstream industries are under cost pressure and are resistant to high prices, limiting the increase in raw material prices. The BDO demand is influenced by negative factors.
Market Outlook: With the restart of Yanchang Petroleum's facilities and an increase in supply, attention will be on changes in temporarily halted operations. Overall, BDO analysts expect that the Chinese BDO market may mainly adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
