August 21st News
On August 20, the Chinese PVC spot market saw a slight decline, with dealers in Zibo and Linyi regions reporting a decrease of 20-30 yuan from the previous day. The futures market's midday drop led to a follow-up decline in the spot market. The average difference indicator shows that the current market is in a strong consolidation (bullish) phase, with prices at a low point over a one-year period, indicating limited downward space. In the short term, attention should be paid to the trend of the futures market and changes in the spot trading atmosphere.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-20) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-19) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 15.10 | 43.80 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 25.70 | 18.70 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 21.05 | 20.85 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (-, +, +), which conforms to the characteristics of a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions in China
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of the three differences in moving averages are not entirely consistent (the 5-day difference has decreased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day differences have increased compared to yesterday), which does not meet the criteria for a clear trend. Therefore, it is judged to be an oscillating trend, with an overall characteristic of strong consolidation tending towards bullishness.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1-year price positioning: at a low level, with limited room for further decline;
Price position over a 3-month cycle: Median, with relatively balanced upside and downside potential;
60-day cycle price position: at a medium-high level, the short-term upward space may be somewhat limited.
Overall, the risk of a decline is relatively low in the long term, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the pressure performance in the mid-to-high range.
V. Trend Chart Display
VI. Spot Market Dynamics
Zibo Area: On August 20, the PVC market saw a slight decline. Dealers’ quoted prices fell by 20-30 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream pickup prices for Type 5 PVC produced via the calcium carbide method ranged from 4,500 to 4,550 CNY per ton.
Linyi Area: On August 20, the PVC market saw a slight decline. Dealers’ quoted prices dropped by 20-30 yuan compared to the previous day, with mainstream quotations for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 ranging from 4,510 to 4,550 CNY per ton.
August 18 market review: The Linyi region remained stable, while the Zibo region showed a stronger fluctuation, with dealers' quotes changing by within 20 yuan.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
