Polyethylene Prices Fall, Short-Term Fluctuations with a Weaker Trend

April 16 News Curve Comparison Chart

According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on April 9 was 8,916 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 16 was 8,541 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.21%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on April 9 was 11,933 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 16 was 11,650 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.37%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 9 was 10,562 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 16 was 10,400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.

International crude oil prices have been continuously declining recently, and the cost support for PE production is insufficient, further exacerbating the market's bearish sentiment. Among these, LLDPE is the most sensitive to crude oil prices; therefore, the weakening of the cost end has the greatest impact on it, with the most significant price decrease.

On the supply side, conditions remain generally tight. China is currently at the peak of its annual spring maintenance period, leading to a decline in capacity utilization rates and production output. On the import side, geopolitical factors in the Middle East have resulted in insufficient arrivals, causing inventories to show a diverging trend—upstream inventories are accumulating while social inventories are being depleted.

The overall demand is showing a weak trend in the off-season, with downstream manufacturing enterprises operating at low capacity. The demand for agricultural films is continuously decreasing as spring plowing comes to an end, and there is insufficient new order growth in areas such as packaging films and pipes. Due to the high cost of raw materials, the profit margins of downstream enterprises are being squeezed, leading to cautious purchasing intentions. Most purchases are small, based on immediate needs, and there is no centralized restocking, resulting in limited support for the market.

The short-term polyethylene market will remain volatile and slightly weak. On the supply side, spring maintenance and disruptions in imports provide some support; however, on the demand side, the off-season slump and inventory buildup at upstream enterprises, coupled with the recent weakness in crude oil prices that has weakened cost support, make it difficult for the market to achieve a clear directional breakout amid ongoing bullish-bearish competition.