Cost Support Limited, Maleic Anhydride Prices in China Drop Significantly

April 17th News

According to SpotCom data, the domestic anhydride market in China saw a significant decline this week. As of April 16, the average market price for anhydride remained at 8,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 8.13% from 8,762.50 CNY/ton on April 10.

Supply side: The market for maleic anhydride continued to decline this week. The bidding situation for Wanhua in the East China session was mediocre, with prices continuing to fall, providing limited support to the maleic anhydride market. Prices from major maleic anhydride producers continued to drop; some manufacturers limited their shipments this week, and some even halted sales, but new orders from downstream buyers were limited, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand. As of April 16, in the Shandong region, the factory price of solid maleic anhydride was operating around 7,000-7,500 CNY/ton, while the factory price of liquid maleic anhydride was around 7,000-7,200 CNY/ton.

On the upstream side: In April, Saudi CP prices rose to USD 800 per ton, and the supply of imported gas is expected to remain tight in April. Recently, liquefied petroleum gas prices at Shandong refineries have continued to decline, while China's n-butane prices have fluctuated downward, falling to RMB 6,700 per ton.

Downstream: This week, the unsaturated resins market was weak, mainly due to the decline in raw material prices. The cost support for unsaturated resins was limited, and downstream enterprises were mostly observing, maintaining only necessary purchases.

According to maleic anhydride product analysts, in the short term, current maleic anhydride prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations. After a substantial price increase earlier, the market is facing some profit-taking and downward pressure. However, considering factors such as industry operating rates, cost support from raw materials, and demand from downstream unsaturated resins, it is expected that maleic anhydride prices will likely remain in a high-level volatile range with limited room for significant short-term declines. In the near future, close attention should be paid to developments in plant maintenance, fluctuations in the price of the feedstock n-butane, and sustained changes in downstream terminal demand. If supply remains largely unchanged, there could still be opportunities for temporary price rallies.

Spot market trend forecast:

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that currently, the 10-day moving average of maleic anhydride is crossing above the 20-day moving average, indicating a trend that aligns with the forecasted upward movement.

Looking at the five-term moving averages, the current maleic anhydride price has fallen back to its 10-day and 20-day lows, and the 30-day average has also dropped to a mid-to-low level. However, the 60-day, 90-day, and one-year averages remain at mid-to-high levels. Coupled with the “one-year over-raise” warning label, this indicates that the previous price increase was relatively substantial, and the market is now in a valuation-recovery phase. In the short term, market sentiment remains cautious, with downstream buyers primarily adopting a demand-driven procurement approach. As a result, prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.