Methanol Market Trends Remain Strong

June 5 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 5th to 8th (as of 10:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose from 3,160 CNY/ton to around 3,213 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 2.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.92%. The price of methanol in inland China continued to rise, with concentrated pre-sales and over-order shipments from inland factories, and truck loading was hindered in many areas; in addition, the warming of futures boosted market sentiment, and under the logic of buying on the rise, spot quotations in various regions generally increased.

As of the close on June 4th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated and fell. The MA2609 contract opened at 2,938 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2,938 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2,868 CNY/ton. It closed at 2,877 CNY/ton, down 31 CNY/ton from the previous day's closing settlement. The open interest for the MA2609 contract was 694,900 lots, a decrease of 31,300 lots from the previous trading day.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of June 5, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

On the cost side, coal supply is ample. Due to the rapid rise in market prices earlier, downstream buyers have become increasingly resistant to high prices, and prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost factors for methanol are leaning toward positive influences.

Coal/Power Coal (Upstream Raw Material) – Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: On the downstream side, the market price of glacial acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market sees a narrow increase, and the dimethyl ether market remains stable with a slight upward trend. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is favorably impacted by positive factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, plant maintenance at Donghua in Inner Mongolia; Xinjiang Tianye and Northwest Energy facilities resumed operations; overall, the recovery volume exceeded the loss volume, production increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. The methanol supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

Regarding overseas markets, as of the close on June 4, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 605–607 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 151–153 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 450–452 per ton.

Looking ahead, both the domestic methanol market and downstream enterprises are experiencing maintenance-related losses, leading to a relatively stalemate in the supply-demand dynamic. Port and inland inventories remain persistently low, and available spot supplies at enterprises are tight. As a result, the volume of methanol spot transactions in the market remains relatively limited, providing continued support for the methanol market. Overall, methanol analysts expect that the Chinese methanol spot market will mainly be characterized by consolidation.