August 28 news
According to SpotCom data: In August, the adipic acid market in China warmed up and rose with fluctuations. On August 1, the average market price of adipic acid was 8,400 CNY/ton, and on August 28, the average market price of adipic acid was 8,500 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 1.49%.
The main factors influencing the rise and fall of adipic acid prices in August
Cost Side: Pure benzene has been the biggest positive factor this month. International crude oil prices have repeatedly strengthened amid geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up pure benzene prices. Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene has risen cumulatively by 650 CNY/ton by mid-month, with spot prices surging to around 8,200 CNY/ton, significantly increasing the cost of adipic acid.
The acid-benzene price spread continues to compress, with major Chinese producers operating at a theoretical loss. Factories have a low willingness to sell at a discount and a strong desire to maintain prices, forming a bottom support for prices.
Supply Side: Overall operations are moderate, with limited disruption from maintenance. There are no large-scale shutdowns of major facilities in China, only some local minor repairs. The industry's operational level remains moderate; there has been no significant reduction in load, and supply has not substantially contracted.
In July, China exported 31,796 tons and imported only 279 tons, still relying mainly on self-sufficiency. Exports decreased month-over-month, with limited external demand. Factory inventory pressure is not significant, and social inventory is neutral. Low-priced goods are gradually being absorbed, and the amount of low-priced goods in the market is decreasing.
Demand Side: Essential demand remains steady, with expectations for a peak season that have yet to materialize. Downstream structure of adipic acid: 60% for PA66 nylon, 30–35% for polyurethane shoe soles and adhesives, and 5–10% for biodegradable plastics such as PBAT. PA66: used in engineering plastics and automotive components; August saw moderate start-up activity, with no surge in orders, and raw material procurement was mostly on an as-needed basis. Polyurethane (shoe sole raw materials and elastomers): Preparations for the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season have not yet kicked off on a large scale. August is still at the tail end of the off-season, with downstream plants operating at a generally low level, primarily replenishing stocks to meet essential demand, and showing weak willingness to chase price increases. PBAT biodegradable plastics: Demand remains stable, with no unexpected increase in volume.
Technical Level Forecast
According to SpotCom data, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that key indicators: after the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average on August 15, the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on August 23, indicating that the adipic acid market has started to rise after a decline. By the end of August, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are gradually converging. The positive expansion of the difference between the averages indicates an acceleration in the upward trend.
Auxiliary Indicator: As of the end of August, adipic acid prices reached their 10-day high, 20-day high, and 30-day high. In September, adipic acid prices still have room to decline.
In summary: The forecast of supply and demand indicates that cost support remains, supply pressure is moderate, and demand is increasing. The adipic acid market at the beginning of September will still fluctuate and rise. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market in August will continue to strengthen, and the market has already reached a high level. Therefore, the overall trend of the adipic acid market at the beginning of September will be mainly upward with fluctuations, and the expected price range is between 8,500 CNY/ton and 9,000 CNY/ton.
