September 2nd News
Recently, due to the rise in crude oil prices, strong cost support, and factors such as some production units being shut down for maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, the spot quotations for butadiene rubber have been continuously increasing. Based on the analysis using the average difference method, the current butadiene rubber market in China is experiencing a strong rebound and volatile trend, with prices in the higher range over the past year. The room for further price increases is relatively limited.
Post-correction analysis content
I. Data Description
The latest available data is up to September 1, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | Value as of September 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of August 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference D5 | 332.00 | 202.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference D10 | 44.00 | -43.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference D20 | 249.00 | 294.50 | - |
III. Signal Status Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, +, -), corresponding to a strong rebound (biased towards bullish, with the nature of a rebound) in China.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is fluctuating. The reason for this judgment is that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences compared to the previous day are +, +, and -, respectively. The directions of these changes are not completely consistent, which meets the criteria for a fluctuating market, and it belongs to a strong rebound type with a bullish bias.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Butadiene rubber 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both at high levels, and the 1-year cycle price is at a moderately high level (4th tier), with limited upside potential overall.
VI. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VII. Fundamental Support Reference
Cost side: Upstream butadiene prices have continued to rise recently. Combined with volatile crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber remains strong.
Supply side: Recently, several butadiene rubber production facilities in China have been shut down for maintenance or are operating at reduced capacity. This includes the shutdown of the Taisha-Ube (Nantong) facility for maintenance, the shutdown of the Qilu Petrochemical facility for maintenance, the reduction in capacity of the Haopu New Materials facility, and the planned reduction in capacity of the Shandong Yihua Rubber & Plastic facility within the week. The contraction in supply is supporting prices.
Spot market: On September 1st, Sinopec and CNPC continuously increased their factory prices. Spot traders in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions raised their offers by 200~300 CNY/ton, with mainstream quotations ranging from 15,100 to 15,300 CNY/ton.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
