September 2nd news
[Key Insight] Currently, ethanol prices are in a strong, consolidating (slightly bullish) volatile pattern. In the short term, they are supported by rising overseas prices and robust spot demand, keeping them relatively strong. Coupled with low price levels across multiple timeframes, downside room is limited, making a moderate upward trend more likely going forward.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of Sep 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of Aug 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -1.34 | 0 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -4.61 | -6.11 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -12.74 | -12.77 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three mean difference change direction combinations are (-, +, +), which belong to a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The short-term trend for ethanol prices is volatile but biased towards an increase. The reasoning is as follows: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which aligns with the criteria for a volatile market according to the moving average difference method. This corresponds to a strong consolidation (biased towards an increase), indicating that the prices are more resistant to declines in the short term, and there is a higher probability of a stronger trend.
IV. Spatial Reference
Ethanol 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both in the 1st tier (low, corresponding to the lowest 20% price range within the respective cycles), while the 1-year cycle price is in the 2nd tier (low-mid, corresponding to the 20%-40% price range within the cycle). The overall downward space is limited.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Fundamental Analysis Reference
External Market Support: On August 31, the ex-factory price of Brazilian modified ethanol, including duties, rose by 134 CNY/ton from the previous month to 7,918 CNY/ton; the ex-factory price of U.S. modified ethanol, including duties, increased by 315 CNY/ton to 9,580 CNY/ton. The rise in import costs is providing support for Chinese ethanol prices.
China Market: On August 31, Guanxian Xinrui increased its ethanol quotation by 50 CNY/ton, with the general grade executed at 5400 CNY/ton. Transactions for rigid demand were smooth. Only Henan Han Yong's premium ethanol quotation slightly decreased by 10 CNY/ton, and overall, manufacturers' intention to maintain prices was strong.
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
