September 15th, it was reported that
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 15th, the reference average price of urea in the Shandong region of China was 1,802 CNY/ton, an increase of 5.26% from the reference average price of 1,712 CNY/ton on September 1st.
II. Market Analysis
Market Situation
In the first half of this month, the urea market in China showed a strong upward trend. The export market for urea improved, and the price of coal, a raw material for urea, increased. With reduced market supply, these favorable conditions supported a significant rise in urea prices. Recently, urea prices have risen again due to the announcement of the third batch of urea export quotas. As of September 15, urea market quotes in Shandong were around 1760-1810 CNY/ton, in Hebei 1740-1780 CNY/ton, in Henan 1760-1820 CNY/ton, in Hubei 1720-1770 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning 1800-1850 CNY/ton.
Supply and Demand Situation
On the supply side, some enterprises are conducting plant maintenance, leading to a slight decline in the operating rates of urea producers; however, inventories remain at high levels. On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer companies are purchasing only as needed, and demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors remains subdued, with no significant improvement on the demand side for now.
3. Future Market Forecast
Urea analysts believe: Recently, the Chinese urea market has shown a strong trend. Currently, the demand for urea in China is not well supported, but the export volume of urea has started to increase, coupled with the approaching autumn fertilizer preparation. It is expected that in the short term, the Chinese urea market will continue to operate with a strong and volatile trend.
