October 23rd, according to news,
According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 16 to 23, the price of BDO in China increased from 10,316 CNY/ton to 10,338 CNY/ton, rising by 0.21% within the period, up 8.64% month-over-month, and up 38.48% year-over-year.
The Chinese BDO market is undergoing a period of high-level consolidation, currently in a phase of transition between old and new cycles. Fundamental information is mixed, leading to a predominantly watchful market sentiment. Downstream contract orders are being followed up, but spot negotiations are light. There is a tug-of-war in supply and demand discussions, and the market is temporarily stable.
Supply side, in terms of facilities, a set of units at Guotai Xinhua continues to undergo catalyst replacement, and Yanchang Petroleum is operating at reduced capacity, leading to a slight reduction in supply. Some factories have announced production cuts or maintenance for November, with premiums paid at auctions, indicating that suppliers are maintaining a firm market stance. The BDO supply side is influenced by positive factors.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at selected production enterprises:
| Region | Unit Status |
|---|---|
| Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe | Unit 1 shut down on August 27, 2024. Units 2 and 3 operating at 70–80% load. |
| Xinjiang Meike | Unit 3 offline; Units 1, 2, 4, and 5 running steadily. |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | 300,000 t/a BDO unit currently operating at approximately 70–80% load. |
| Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua | One unit running steadily; the other undergoing catalyst replacement starting October 13, with an estimated turnaround of about 15 days. |
| Xinjiang Xinye | Units operating steadily. |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Operating relatively stably. |
| Sichuan WanHua | Catalyst replacement on October 8; restart scheduled for October 15. |
Cost Side: On the calcium carbide front, prices have declined, orderly power consumption in Inner Mongolia has eased, and supply has increased. Downstream maintenance is concentrated, leaving demand support relatively weak. With supply outstripping demand, market inventories remain ample, and the number of trucks waiting to unload continues to rise. As for methanol, prices have remained firm. While raw material calcium carbide prices are trending lower and methanol prices are trading in a high‑range consolidation, the cost impact on BDO remains mixed.
Demand Side: On the downstream front, the utilization rate of PTMEG production capacity—the main downstream product—has recently declined, leading to a reduction in raw material consumption. Meanwhile, overall raw material prices have been trending lower, weakening cost‑supportive factors; moreover, many downstream industries are operating at a loss, resulting in sluggish cost pass‑through. Consequently, BDO demand is weighed down by bearish factors.
Outlook for the future, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, the pressure on supply and demand is growing. At the same time, cost support is weakening, and industry players have a strong cautious bearish sentiment towards the future. Overall, BDO analysts predict that the BDO market in China will mainly undergo consolidation.
