September 24th report:
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On September 24, 2026, since mid-August, coke has experienced five consecutive rounds of price increases, with wet quenched coke rising by 450 CNY/ton and dry quenched coke rising by 495 CNY/ton.
2. Market Analysis
Spot Market: Since mid-August, coking coal has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, with wet quenched coke rising by 450 CNY/ton and dry quenched coke rising by 495 CNY/ton. In the latter part of September, prices have remained at a high level, with expectations for the first round of price decreases brewing but not yet realized. Current mainstream spot prices are: Tangshan first-grade dry quenched coke at 2,560 CNY/ton, Changzhi quasi-first-grade dry quenched coke at 2,360 CNY/ton, and Rizhao Port quasi-first-grade wet quenched coke ex-warehouse at 1,920-1,930 CNY/ton (a decrease of about 170 yuan from the September peak).
Futures End: The Dalian Commodity Exchange's coke 2701 contract weakened continuously in September, closing at 1952.5 CNY/ton on September 18 (down 5.33% for the week), and at 1968.5 CNY/ton in the morning session on September 24 (down 0.93%). It has already broken through the 2000 CNY/ton level, with the market trading negative feedback in advance. The A-share coke II sector index was around 1199 points on September 24, a retreat of about 10% from the high of 1335.95 on September 2. The net inflow of main funds on that day was approximately 381 million yuan, but it is still down about 15% year-to-date.
Profit: After five rounds of price increases, the average profit per ton of coke in China has risen to about 55 CNY/ton. Some coking enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei provinces have exceeded 100 CNY/ton, but some samples still show an average loss of 127 CNY/ton for coke nationwide, indicating a significant divergence in regional and factory conditions.
Inventory: Both Chinese coke enterprises and steel mills have reduced their inventories, with the total inventory at approximately 8.9 million tons (a weekly decrease of 250,000 tons). The inventory of coke enterprises is 699,000 tons (a weekly decrease of 136,000 tons), and the inventory of steel mills is 5.675 million tons (a weekly decrease of 50,000 tons) with an available days of 10.5 days. The port inventory is 2.527 million tons (a weekly decrease of 65,000 tons). Low inventory levels provide support before the holiday.
3. Future Market Prediction
Coke analysts believe: Pre-holiday restocking + low inventory + high pig iron production, coke spot prices are stable for now. The probability of a full implementation of the sixth round of price increases is low, and even if it is implemented regionally, the price increase may be limited to around 50 yuan. The first round of price reductions is being considered due to steel mills' losses, but large-scale price cuts before the holiday are unlikely. Spot prices are caught between rising and falling, and are expected to remain at high levels with fluctuations.
