September 29 report:
This diesel spot market analysis is based on public data from September 28, 2026. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences for diesel are all positive compared to the previous day, indicating a clear upward trend. However, the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year price cycles for diesel are already at high levels, suggesting limited room for further increases. The fundamentals are supported by several factors, including the implementation of three consecutive increases in retail prices for refined oil products in China on September 24 (with diesel prices actually increasing by 385 CNY per ton), continuously rising diesel quotations from independent refineries in China, high international crude oil prices, and the U.S. plan to restrict diesel exports.
The latest available data is up to September 28, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 28, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 27, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 176.00 | 40.20 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 188.29 | 167.64 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 155.62 | 144.22 | + |
2. Signal status determination
The current uniform change direction is completely consistent, indicating a clear upward signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in diesel prices is clearly upward. The reason is that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are all consistently positive, which meets the criteria for a clear upward trend.
4. Position Space Reference
Diesel prices for 60 days, 3 months, and 1 year cycles in China are all at the 5th level (high), with limited room for further increases.
5. Trend chart display
6. Fundamental Support Reference
Policy side: On September 24, China’s refined oil price adjustment window took effect, with the retail price of diesel rising by RMB 385 per ton. Since the beginning of 2026, retail prices for refined oil have recorded thirteen increases, five decreases, and one suspension; this round marks the third consecutive increase.
Origin end: On September 28, the price range for diesel from local refineries in the northeastern region of China was 9,500-9,600 CNY per ton, and in the northwestern region of China, it was 9,100-9,200 CNY per ton, significantly higher than previous levels.
International Market: International crude oil prices have been fluctuating at high levels, and reports from the United States that it plans to impose restrictions on diesel exports have provided support for global refined‑product prices.
Risk warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
