September 18th, news:
I. Weekly Market Overview: Wide-Ranging Rally, with a Noticeable Shift in the Center of Gravity
This week, the Chinese acrylic acid market experienced a strong and broad upward trend. At the beginning of the week, the price of acrylic acid remained stable at 8,616.67 CNY/ton; however, on September 14th, the market suddenly surged, with a single-day increase of 3.87%, pushing the price up to 8,950.00 CNY/ton. In the following days (September 15th-17th), the price continued to rise slightly, finally reaching the 9,000.00 CNY/ton mark on September 17th.
According to data monitoring, as of September 18, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 9,000.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 9.31% compared to the beginning of this month (8,233.33 CNY/ton). Currently, the overall market trading atmosphere is good, with downstream demand maintaining steady follow-up.
II. Cost-side Analysis: Raw material propylene rises sharply in tandem, providing strong support
This significant increase in acrylic acid prices is closely tied to the strong push from the cost side. According to the data, the benchmark price of propylene on September 18 was 9,784.33 CNY per ton, an increase of 8.99% compared to the beginning of the month (8,977.67 CNY per ton). The simultaneous and substantial rise in the price of propylene, the raw material, has directly increased the production costs of acrylic acid. Under the pressure of shrinking profits, acrylic acid manufacturers have a strong desire to maintain and raise prices, forming a robust bottom support for the cost side.
III. Technical and Position Analysis: Moving Averages Are Bullishly Arranged; Price Has Entered a High-Position Zone
Position Indicators: According to the table data, after a significant increase on September 14th, acrylic acid is currently in a "high position" across 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day periods. Its one-year position has also risen from a previous "low to mid-position" to a "mid-position," indicating that the current price has completely moved out of the low range over the past year and entered a mid to high range.
Moving Average System: As shown in the figure, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages all exhibit a clear upward divergence in a bullish formation. The price line (yellow line) rapidly broke through all the moving averages after September 13, and the 5-day moving average (red line) is steeply rising.
According to the SpotCommodity principle, a positive and widening mean difference indicates a typical "moving average crossover" state. This suggests that the Chinese market is in a clear signal of the initiation and continuation of an upward trend.
4. Supply and Demand and Outlook for the Future
Currently, the market shows a pattern of "cost-driven + rigid demand follow-up." Although prices have risen significantly, there is some resistance from downstream players to high-priced raw materials, mostly maintaining rigid demand procurement, and the market lacks large-scale speculative stockpiling.
Future Market Forecast:
In the short term, whether the price of propylene, the raw material, can remain firm will determine the cost bottom line for acrylic acid. Given that the current price of acrylic acid is already at a "high" level in various cycles, and the moving average system is diverging rapidly, it is expected that the market will mainly focus on digesting the price increase at high levels in the short term, with limited room for further significant price increases. If the follow-up rigid demand from downstream slows down, the market may face the risk of a phased correction or high-level fluctuation. It is recommended that industry insiders closely monitor the trend of raw materials and changes in the operating rates of downstream industries, and rationally avoid the risk of a high-level decline.
