October 15th, according to reports
The latest round of adjustments to China's refined oil prices took effect at 24:00 on October 15. In this round, the retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil in China will have experienced thirteen increases, five decreases, and two suspensions. During this cycle, international crude oil prices briefly declined before rising significantly. Based on the changes in international oil prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted this time.
During this pricing cycle, international oil prices initially declined before rebounding. As of the 15th, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $95.09 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $106.06 per barrel. In the early part of the cycle, a confluence of bearish factors—including signs of resumed Middle Eastern crude exports, progress in U.S.-Iran indirect talks, and reports that the United States might release strategic petroleum reserves—weighed heavily on prices, sending them sharply lower. WTI fell below the $90 mark, and both benchmark crudes retreated to multi‑month lows. Later in the cycle, renewed volatility in the Middle East and rising shipping risk premiums pushed prices higher; compounded by Hurricane Isaias, which led to the large‑scale shutdown of production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico, short‑term supply tightened, bolstering buying interest and lifting prices on the back of supply‑side concerns. Overall, as crude prices recovered from earlier losses, China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced that, in line with changes in international oil markets, gasoline and diesel prices would remain unchanged this time.
Gasoline: Recently, Chinese refinery operations have not changed significantly, and the supply of refined oil products remains normal. The operating rate of Shandong's independent refineries has continued to decline to below 50%, while the operating rates of major refineries have remained relatively stable. Additionally, both major and local refineries in China generally maintain low inventories of refined oil products, keeping supply-side pressure manageable. However, the continuous increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles is creating structural pressure, significantly impacting the traditional gasoline market. High oil prices themselves also suppress the frequency of vehicle use for some car owners, leading to high and volatile gasoline prices.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been relatively normal. As the hot and rainy weather subsides, the operating rates of construction, infrastructure, and outdoor mining operations are gradually increasing. Additionally, with the arrival of the peak season for diesel demand and an increase in logistics and transportation, the rigid consumption of diesel has increased. Recently, the demand for diesel in agriculture for the autumn harvest has also increased. Moreover, with the end of the fishing ban in both southern and northern China, the use of fuel at sea has increased, significantly boosting the demand for diesel. Coupled with strong cost support, diesel prices have remained high, leading to a significant rise in the diesel market.
Looking ahead, the crude oil market has entered a strong regime dominated by geopolitical risks and underpinned by solid fundamentals, with prices likely to remain volatile at elevated levels in the short term. In the near term, shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain subdued, while robust underlying demand in the physical market provides firm support. Coupled with ongoing global inventory drawdowns, oil prices have found strong backing around the $100 mark, making a continuation of range‑bound, upward‑biased trading highly probable; volatility is expected to widen in tandem with geopolitical developments. High oil prices are exerting upward pressure on China’s gasoline and diesel prices, but the combined effects of elevated fuel costs, alternative energy options, and rainy weather could keep consumption of these products sluggish. While crude oil continues to support refined‑product pricing, weakening demand will weigh on price gains going forward, leaving the outlook for gasoline and diesel prices tilted toward continued strength.
