This daily report is based on an average difference analysis framework, combining the latest spot quotes, supply and demand in the industrial chain, import and export data, and facility dynamics for a comprehensive assessment: The current phthalic anhydride price is in a stable but fluctuating pattern. Short-term signals are slightly bullish, with the 1-year cycle price at a historically high level, leaving limited room for further increases. The cost side and rigid demand provide strong support, and it is likely to maintain a consolidation trend in the future.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of October 22, 2026 | Value as of October 21, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -26.66 | -50 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 18.33 | 76.67 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 257.5 | 252.5 | + |
II. Signal Status and Trend Assessment
Signal Status: The current combination of changes in the three indicators is (+, -, +), which belongs to a retest (bullish) signal.
Trend Conclusion: Fluctuation. Reason: The directions of the three mean differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward/downward trend. The overall pattern is fluctuation, with a bias towards being bullish.
III. Price-Location-Space Reference
Phthalic anhydride 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 5th tier out of 5 (high position), indicating that the current price is in the highest 20% range over the past year, with limited room for further increases. The cost side and low inventory of spot goods provide strong support for the price.
4. Spot Market Supply and Demand Dynamics
Regional Market Prices: On October 22, the mainstream quotation for orthoxylene-based phthalic anhydride in East China was 10,000-10,500 CNY/ton, and the price for naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride was 9,400-9,600 CNY/ton; in Shandong, the negotiation price for orthoxylene-based phthalic anhydride was 10,000-10,100 CNY/ton, and the price for naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride was 9,500-9,600 CNY/ton; in Jiangsu, the negotiation price for orthoxylene-based phthalic anhydride was 10,300-10,500 CNY/ton, and the price for naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride was 9,700-9,800 CNY/ton. The market conditions in each region were generally stable.
Upstream and Downstream Support: Crude oil prices fluctuated and increased, industrial naphthalene remained strong, and the price of ortho-xylene stabilized at 10,150 CNY/ton, indicating continued cost support. Downstream plasticizer production loads have increased, with rigid demand procurement being the main driver, providing stable demand support. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have also increased their production loads, ensuring ample supply and low inventory levels.
Import and Export Data: In September 2026, China’s phthalic anhydride import volume was 397.61 tons, with a cumulative total of 2,931.21 tons for the first nine months; in September, the export volume stood at 13,943.45 tons, and the year-to-date cumulative exports reached 144,037 tons, reflecting strong export performance.
Plant Dynamics: The 100,000-ton phthalic anhydride plant at Changzhou Xinyang has been shut down for maintenance; inventory is oversold, and prices are being gradually lowered.
V. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
(Source: China)
